I think the Tories will increase their majority, despite the poor campaign they've run. Simply because the youngsters won't turn up to vote, while the old bones within an inch of the grave, will crawl to the polling station out of old habit.
The problem is that that sort of modelling isn't an attempt to predict what will actually happen. It's an attempt to predict what will happen if a variety of hypotheticals come into play. Now that's fine in itself, but when it is reported as an accurate reflection of voter intention, it becomes problematic, since it starts to influence the nature of the democratic process itself.
Northern Monkey ... who can't upload a bleeding Avatar
My prediction (change from 2015 result in brackets)
Conservative 360 (+29 seats)
Labour 217 (-15)
SNP 38 (-18)
Lib Dem 14 (+6)
Others (Paddies, Taffies, Green, Speaker) 21 (-2)
Tory win by 50/75 seats.
Not impressed by May. Blown her chances of being a long-term PM.
TM clearly isn't one for the campaign trail. But ask yourself one question. Would you rathed have a PM who is capable over a five year term or one who can dazzle in a seven week campaign.