So this vote that Mrs May lost, I'm assuming it is some irrelevance

[Monty92]

Well that will be tested shortly with the cooper boles amendment which labour has said they will whip hard to support.

A long extension to Article 50 is a nice threat to wave at the ERG, but everyone knows it's not politically sustainable because a/ The EU cannot have us half-in, half-out indefinitely and b/ At some point a government will have to fight an election (sooner rather than later given that it will be impossible to command a majority in the event of such an outcome), which will be impossible to do successfully in such circumstances.

[WES]

Well that will be tested shortly with the cooper boles amendment which labour has said they will whip hard to support.

My view is that at the last minute the EU will offer us something short of no backstop but that will be enough for May to get her deal through as the only other option will be no deal. And I think it will be Labour votes not ERG votes that swing it her way.

Is that contrary to anything I have posted in the past?

[WES]

My view is that at the last minute the EU will offer us something short of no backstop but that will be enough for May to get her deal through as the only other option will be no deal. And I think it will be Labour votes not ERG votes that swing it her way.

Is that contrary to anything I have posted in the past?

Oh, and when that happens those that have used some pretty strong hyperbole when describing her deal and her performance and herself will look awfully stupid.

I'm pretty certain I have posted nothing contrary to that view. I've always said she was making a pretty good fist of an incredibly difficult position.

[Burney]

My view is that at the last minute the EU will offer us something short of no backstop but that will be enough for May to get her deal through as the only other option will be no deal. And I think it will be Labour votes not ERG votes that swing it her way.

Is that contrary to anything I have posted in the past?

I think pretty much everyone believes this is what the EU will do. However, it is a high-risk manoeuvre that still allows plenty of scope for failure.
If (as seems likely) May needs Labour votes to get her deal, she will be widely seen as having betrayed her party, membership and a large proportion of her voters and her position will be largely untenable. She would almost certainly then have to stand down (the knives will be out as soon as Brexit - in whatever form - is delivered. The tory party will probably never recover from such an outcome (but it's arguable that that was always likely to have been the case given its fundamental splits on this issue - which will by that stage have destroyed every Tory PM since Heath).
Now, you may say she's 'made a good fist' of an impossible situation and from a purely dispassionate view that may be the case. However, politics is not a dispassionate business and the fact is that she may well go down in history as the Prime Minister who broke the Tory party and let Jeremy Corbyn into Downing St. Given which, I would question how well she would be viewed by posterity.

[WES]

I think pretty much everyone believes this is what the EU will do. However, it is a high-risk manoeuvre that still allows plenty of scope for failure.
If (as seems likely) May needs Labour votes to get her deal, she will be widely seen as having betrayed her party, membership and a large proportion of her voters and her position will be largely untenable. She would almost certainly then have to stand down (the knives will be out as soon as Brexit - in whatever form - is delivered. The tory party will probably never recover from such an outcome (but it's arguable that that was always likely to have been the case given its fundamental splits on this issue - which will by that stage have destroyed every Tory PM since Heath).
Now, you may say she's 'made a good fist' of an impossible situation and from a purely dispassionate view that may be the case. However, politics is not a dispassionate business and the fact is that she may well go down in history as the Prime Minister who broke the Tory party and let Jeremy Corbyn into Downing St. Given which, I would question how well she would be viewed by posterity.

I thought there had been an agreement that she tries to deliver Brexit and then steps down? I would have thought that delivering her deal and then stepping aside for someone electable would put the Tories in a very strong position, no?

Certainly given how badly Labour has performed on the Brexit front and who their leader is I would have thought the Tories would be looking at a majority.

[Burney]

I thought there had been an agreement that she tries to deliver Brexit and then steps down? I would have thought that delivering her deal and then stepping aside for someone electable would put the Tories in a very strong position, no?

Certainly given how badly Labour has performed on the Brexit front and who their leader is I would have thought the Tories would be looking at a majority.

No. She's supposed to have said she won't fight the next election. That's not quite the same thing. And besides, nobody in her party believes a single thing that comes out of her mouth any more.

And regardless of who steps up, they have the same problem. A remainer and you have a continuation of the same issue people have with her. A Brexiteer (which is certainly what the membership would vote for) and that person is at odds with their parliamentary party. Add to that the very real anger among many, many Tory voters over their handling of Brexit and the possibility of a Brexit party of protest and I'm just not sure the Tory party is in any position to fight an election right now.

And actually, Corbyn's lot have played Brexit pretty well. They've played both ends against the middle such that they can claim to be both the voice of reason and consensus in delivering a soft Brexit (thus keeping all but their most rabid remain voters onboard) while not being seen to betray the wishes of their Leave-voting heartlands. Everything else they say and believe is a reason not to vote for them, but on Brexit they look likely to escape with a certain amount of credit and (more crucially) none of the blame.