I'd probably put an extension of Article 50 and a second referendum at about 70%

[Burney]

I know, but ultimately I think Tory MPs outside the ERG would sooner get behind a second ref than a No Deal Brexit.

It's possible that a No Deal Brexit could wipe out the Tories at the next GE, too. Even if an orderly No Deal departure was at a certain point possible, it does seem likely that it hasn't been adequately prepared for, and the economic impact would be substantial.
.

No Deal might damage them in the short term (but, btw, the UK electorate doesn't vote Labour when the economy's in serious trouble - Labour govts are an indulgence set aside for good economic - or at least optimistic - times. Voting Labour during an economic storm would be like a shipwrecked sailor choosing to cling to the anchor rather than the wreckage).

By contrast, extending Article 50 and a second vote would betray their base destroy them forever. Which would you choose?

[Herbert Augustus Chapman]

No Deal might damage them in the short term (but, btw, the UK electorate doesn't vote Labour when the economy's in serious trouble - Labour govts are an indulgence set aside for good economic - or at least optimistic - times. Voting Labour during an economic storm would be like a shipwrecked sailor choosing to cling to the anchor rather than the wreckage).

By contrast, extending Article 50 and a second vote would betray their base destroy them forever. Which would you choose?

. . . . . . . . .

[Burney]

. . . . . . . . .

Our economy is currently outperforming the rest of Europe, h. We're talking about a hypothetical scenario whereby No Deal wreaks short-term economic damage.