The real problem with the death toll figures is that they are complete bullshít. If we had confidence in those figures we could at least then come to some conclusions of how well/badly we've done as a country. They even quote UK figures on the telly every day rather than just England. Anything for a bigger number...Originally Posted by Pokster
'Seems that I was busy doing something close to nothing
But different than the day before'
'Met a dwarf that was no good, dressed like Little Red Riding Hood'
'Now you're unemployed, all non-void
Walkin' round like you're Pretty Boy Floyd'
I'm not sure we can call out the ONS on the overall number of recorded deaths, b.
Whether they are COVID related or not is debatable, but we can't really argue about excess mortality rates during this period. And in any case, herd immunity IS the answer to shít like this...
www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/
“Other clubs never came into my thoughts once I knew Arsenal wanted to sign me.”
Even excess death figures are questionable, I'm afraid. There are enormous problems in comparing this data: accuracy of raw data; differences in reporting between using death occurrence data (as most EU countries do) or registration data (as we in the UK do) can mean long lags in reporting; how 'normal' deaths are measured; even differences in how we define the week!
In fact, one of the few things on which everyone now agrees is that it's imperative that international/national statistical agencies should publish improved measures of excess mortality and standardise on how they do it.
In short: attempting to judge anything from the numbers as we have them now is a mug's game.
I would have thought that counting deaths would be quite easy - simply based on whether a human being is either dead or not.
Don't tell me that death is now also non-binary
“Other clubs never came into my thoughts once I knew Arsenal wanted to sign me.”
To be clear, I’m not questioning the number of deaths, I’m questioning the idea that the only way to avoid them is by a full lockdown (which the scientists told us we needed) rather than a more intelligent, evidence-based lockdown, and how many deaths we might have ultimately experienced without a full lockdown.I would have thought that counting deaths would be quite easy - simply based on whether a human being is either dead or not.
Don't tell me that death is now also non-binary
And I’m pointing out that the reason we didn’t explore a different approach is because the scientists couldn’t admit they didn’t know and the Prime Minister lacked the balls to call them on it.
The fat, blithering idiot.
As I see it, I'm sure if we had locked down earlier, people whould have just ignored it earlier. The lockdown wasn't to save lives, rather to ensure OUR NHS wasn't overwhelmed. It wasn't. And won't be.
An epidemic (or pandemic) has a lifespan and will naturally fade away and the weaker version of the virus survives and will be around for ever - Spanish 'Flu is still around and is currently known as Influenza.
“Other clubs never came into my thoughts once I knew Arsenal wanted to sign me.”
Counting them is one thing. Determining whether they are excess deaths based on an average over at least five years while taking in account all factors that might cause anomalies during those five years (weather, other disease outbreaks, etc) is quite another and again - obviously due to differing local factors - there are significant variations between countries in how this is calculated.I would have thought that counting deaths would be quite easy - simply based on whether a human being is either dead or not.
Don't tell me that death is now also non-binary
Basically, trying to make sense of the whole thing on a national scale - let alone an international one - is a fúcking nightmare.
I think the maths is quite easy, tbh. Actual number of deaths in a current period compared to the average number of total deaths from the same periods, from the last five years.
Agreed - it is defining what counts as a 'normal death' that is tricky
It's relating deaths directly to C-19 which is the bullshít bit.
“Other clubs never came into my thoughts once I knew Arsenal wanted to sign me.”
Oh, yeah. Those numbers are totally meaningless. I'll give you an example: my friend sadly lost both his parents this year - both in their 80s. Both were being treated for cancer and responding well to treatment. One went into hospital in January for a routine procedure and while there came down with a lung infection and died. This was before Coronavirus was officially here, but they retrospectively think it might have been that, but that's not on the death certificate. The other was in late March, she was being treated at home and had been self-isolating. However, she developed breathing difficulties and was admitted to hospital where she eventually died. Covid-19 was put on the death certificate.
Both of these people were suffering from cancer. Neither of them was tested for Covid-19. One of them did have it on the death certificate, the other didn't. There are thousands of cases like this up and down the country.
So yeah, the numbers of 'confirmed' Covid-19 deaths are total horseshít.
The other factor, of course, is that pretty much every hospital in the UK reported a massive and worrying decline in the number of patients coming in for treatment for 'routine' life-threatening illness. When you have vulnerable people being told that leaving the house - let alone going to a doctor or the hospital - will kill them, how much do you think deaths will increase from non-Covid causes?
Estimates suggest we've seen - and will see - much higher mortality rates from cancer, heart disease, strokes and chronic conditions as a result of people not presenting for treatment. That makes the calculation of 'excess' deaths even more difficult - particularly as many of them will falsely end up with Covid on their death certificates anyway.
Last edited by Burney; 07-02-2020 at 02:00 PM.
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