The thing Boris definitely can and does do is win elections. Right now, the Tory party need that above all else.Originally Posted by Herbert Augustus Chapman
The thing Boris definitely can and does do is win elections. Right now, the Tory party need that above all else.
Says the chap with the unerring ability to call election results. If he sees you've tipped him to win b he'll quit
I got the 2017 one wrong. I got 2015 and Brexit spot on despite polls calling them the other way. Still a pretty good record.Says the chap with the unerring ability to call election results. If he sees you've tipped him to win b he'll quit
I really wish people wouldn't say that about the 2015/16 polls. Psephology is about looking beyond the headline figure.I got the 2017 one wrong. I got 2015 and Brexit spot on despite polls calling them the other way. Still a pretty good record.
I called Brexit a little over a week before the vote because the polls were mostly saying that.
In the week before Jo Cox's murder, Leave was on average 4-5 pts ahead. Then after the killing people were less inclined to tell pollsters they were voting the same way as a racist murderer, which makes sense.
But if you have a look at how the polls jumped, it's clear what happened.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinio...eferendum#2016
The week before the death had Leave 8-2 Remain. After her death it was 10-3 the other way.
Also, Ed M was well behind on both Best PM and Economic Competence. And no HMLO has ever become PM if behind on either of those, let alone both.
It was clear that while they'd tell the pollsters they'd vote Lab cos they were unhappy with Dave, that given they also told them that Ed was no use as a PM and couldn't be trusted with the economy, that when they came to think about it during the campaign, they wouldn't vote for him in the polling booth.
And look where that got us.
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