Brexit is going to ultimately get cancelled if May loses tonight, isn’t it?

[redgunamo]

Always follow the money, SW #PanamaPapers #ParadisePapers

So .............. what exactly are you saying?

You leave with no deal?

[Burney]

So .............. what exactly are you saying?

You leave with no deal?

Potentially, yes. Absolutely. That is the default position.

At which point your economy goes pffffft. Sorry.

[redgunamo]

That should stop him mouthing off about poor old Thierry Henry at least, I suppose.

Potentially, yes. Absolutely. That is the default position.

At which point your economy goes pffffft. Sorry.

[SWv2]

Potentially, yes. Absolutely. That is the default position.

At which point your economy goes pffffft. Sorry.

Not sure your own economy will be exactly golden will it?

[WES]

Not if she can't get it through Parliament (which she patently can't), no.

A rejection of an extension means No Deal.

The only alternative is legislating to revoke of A50, which would be democratically indefensible and would represent electoral suicide for both major parties.

so you think parliament if faced with a choice between no deal and May’s deal would choose no deal? Not convinced

[Burney]

so you think parliament if faced with a choice between no deal and May’s deal would choose no deal? Not convinced

I've explained the mechanics whereby it potentially happens. Labour would whip against it and there's no reason to think any other opposition parties wouldn't do the same, since they'll want to distance themselves as far as possible from 'Tory Brexit' as they can. The DUP won't budge if the backstop doesn't and the ERG - if faced with a choice between the deal they hate and No Deal - will overwhelmingly vote No Deal (indeed, many of them would love it).

Now sure there are lots of potential complications to that (abstentions, rebellions on the Labour benches, Tory MPs losing their bottle, etc), but it's perfectly plausible - even likely at this stage - that May's deal is rejected a third time and we get No Deal.

[Pat Vegas]

So all in all the Brexit is just a complicated equivalent of a Awimb flounce?

[Burney]

So all in all the Brexit is just a complicated equivalent of a Awimb flounce?

Amusingly, after all this time and all the high-level to-ing and fro-ing, it may come down to exactly that, yes.

[eastgermanautos]

Very good. I do sense a sort of warming up to your president happening here, e. You know, as Mueller & Co. prepares to call it a day and go home?

Not so much a warming up as an advancing of the plot. Like I say violent overthrow of the state

[WES]

So .............. what exactly are you saying?

You leave with no deal?

The only upside to a delay from the EU’s perspective is that it ends up in a referendum and a Remain vote. The downside of no extension is that we may vote for no deal.

The EU has to decide which of those two things is more likely and proceed accordingly I think.

I’m now guessing they don’t extend we have one final vote and May’s deal goes through as parliament won’t vote for no deal.