I'd probably put an extension of Article 50 and a second referendum at about 70%

[Monty92]

It won't pass.The former chief whip reckons it'll lose by about 80 votes as things stand. I don't see that turning around - particularly as the legal advice is likely to make May's deal virtually impossible to vote for.

What happens next, iyo?

[Burney]

What happens next, iyo?

Chaos, basically. All this talk of 'voting against hard Brexit' is largely meaningless. How exactly does Parliament go about doing that, given that it has passed an Act saying we will leave the EU on 29 March next year?

[Monty92]

Chaos, basically. All this talk of 'voting against hard Brexit' is largely meaningless. How exactly does Parliament go about doing that, given that it has passed an Act saying we will leave the EU on 29 March next year?

It doesn't, it all just cranks up the pressure on more Cabinet members to resign and in doing so force May to resign to be replaced by someone who will extend Article 50, paving the way for a second referendum.

[Burney]

It doesn't, it all just cranks up the pressure on more Cabinet members to resign and in doing so force May to resign to be replaced by someone who will extend Article 50, paving the way for a second referendum.

Couple of issues there:

a/ There is no public appetite for a second referendum - and absolutely none among Tory voters.
b/ A tory leadership that extends Article 50 and brings in a second referendum will effectively be committing political suicide at the next election - if (and this is not as easy as it sounds) it can actually command a majority for doing so.

[Monty92]

Couple of issues there:

a/ There is no public appetite for a second referendum - and absolutely none among Tory voters.
b/ A tory leadership that extends Article 50 and brings in a second referendum will effectively be committing political suicide at the next election - if (and this is not as easy as it sounds) it can actually command a majority for doing so.

I know, but ultimately I think Tory MPs outside the ERG would sooner get behind a second ref than a No Deal Brexit.

It's possible that a No Deal Brexit could wipe out the Tories at the next GE, too. Even if an orderly No Deal departure was at a certain point possible, it does seem likely that it hasn't been adequately prepared for, and the economic impact would be substantial.
.

[Burney]

I know, but ultimately I think Tory MPs outside the ERG would sooner get behind a second ref than a No Deal Brexit.

It's possible that a No Deal Brexit could wipe out the Tories at the next GE, too. Even if an orderly No Deal departure was at a certain point possible, it does seem likely that it hasn't been adequately prepared for, and the economic impact would be substantial.
.

No Deal might damage them in the short term (but, btw, the UK electorate doesn't vote Labour when the economy's in serious trouble - Labour govts are an indulgence set aside for good economic - or at least optimistic - times. Voting Labour during an economic storm would be like a shipwrecked sailor choosing to cling to the anchor rather than the wreckage).

By contrast, extending Article 50 and a second vote would betray their base destroy them forever. Which would you choose?

[Herbert Augustus Chapman]

No Deal might damage them in the short term (but, btw, the UK electorate doesn't vote Labour when the economy's in serious trouble - Labour govts are an indulgence set aside for good economic - or at least optimistic - times. Voting Labour during an economic storm would be like a shipwrecked sailor choosing to cling to the anchor rather than the wreckage).

By contrast, extending Article 50 and a second vote would betray their base destroy them forever. Which would you choose?

. . . . . . . . .

[Pokster]

Couple of issues there:

a/ There is no public appetite for a second referendum - and absolutely none among Tory voters.
b/ A tory leadership that extends Article 50 and brings in a second referendum will effectively be committing political suicide at the next election - if (and this is not as easy as it sounds) it can actually command a majority for doing so.

No public appetite??? I would suggest the remainers would quite gladly have a second one, so that is nearly 50% of the people that voted last time

[Burney]

No public appetite??? I would suggest the remainers would quite gladly have a second one, so that is nearly 50% of the people that voted last time

Currently, polling is at 50:40 against with 10% don't knows. That simply isn't enough to justify a second referendum.

Also, among Tory voters, those numbers stand at 74-18 against. So, the question is: what Tory government in its right mind would choose to pursue a course of action so profoundly contrary to its voters' wishes?

[Pokster]

Currently, polling is at 50:40 against with 10% don't knows. That simply isn't enough to justify a second referendum.

Also, among Tory voters, those numbers stand at 74-18 against. So, the question is: what Tory government in its right mind would choose to pursue a course of action so profoundly contrary to its voters' wishes?

I would suggest that all remainers would jump on a second vote.. and all depends how it was worded, I can't see another yes or no vote as that got us into the mess we are now, it would have to be remain or a yes for whatever the proposal May agreed with the EU is