The other factor, of course, is that pretty much every hospital in the UK reported a massive and worrying decline in the number of patients coming in for treatment for 'routine' life-threatening illness. When you have vulnerable people being told that leaving the house - let alone going to a doctor or the hospital - will kill them, how much do you think deaths will increase from non-Covid causes?
Estimates suggest we've seen - and will see - much higher mortality rates from cancer, heart disease, strokes and chronic conditions as a result of people not presenting for treatment. That makes the calculation of 'excess' deaths even more difficult - particularly as many of them will falsely end up with Covid on their death certificates anyway.