Maybe this consensus has already been vetted here and if so I apologize. Unfortunately due to my career I've researched much more than I have wanted to. As a result I am highly confident of the following:
1) At the time when we really didn't know anything (allegedly) it seems reasonable in hindsight to have curtailed or 'locked down' human activity. The concern was our health care system being overrun. I'll let that slide
2) The scary part for the masses is the Death Ratio. The IMHE modeling uses CFR which is simply Deaths divided by Cases. Early on it was assumed that this Death Ratio was up to 5%.
3) Since then improved testing and experiential data has shown that rate to be lower, much lower. Many acquired the virus and had no symptoms. For others the symptoms were mild and toughed it out. They were never tested which resulted in an inaccurate, much lower divisor. I believe that I am in the second group, a week in March was a rough one.
4) a deep dive into the data shows that the Death Ratio is most likely lower than .5%.
Meaning: Let's use .5% as the actual ratio. That means that for every 1000 people that contract the virus 5 die. Dat is also showing that of those 5 deaths FOUR are either over 70 and/or have co-morbidities that the virus really attacks hard like diabetes, cardiovascular disease, lung disease, blood disorders like anemia, etc.
5) the End Game : Out of 1000 that contract the virus 1 person under 70 without co-morbidities dies.
So we've wrecked the economy and willfully wreaked havoc on peoples' livelihoods, life's work and societal gathering (concerts. football, church, etc.). Traditionally a quarantine is meant to isolate the sick and vulnerable as others go about their lives. This little experiment done by 'experts' will most likely be much worse to human society for years and years. It won't go back to being the same. Ever. This is not to discount the pain and agony of those that succumb and their loved ones. Not at all this thing is hideous to die from. But at the end of the day we have to reckon with the 'worth' of all this for pretty much 1 in a 1000.
The real failure is not what was done when the virus was novel, the true damage is being done right now when we know what it is all about.
Enjoy your weekend.
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