So here's the deal on this virus

[Chief Arrowhead]

The article you shared is written by someone who either doesn't understand or is wilfully ignoring the principles of science.

"All the science indicated that existing measures, encouraging the public to observe basic hygiene and limit interactions with vulnerable people, was working, as C19 followed the normal bell curve of any viral disease in a population."

Utter cobblers, I am afraid. I can't think of a single scientific domain where all 'science' (whatever that means) has ever totally agreed on something. It's just a series of hyperbolic/completely ungrounded statements that no data analyst would ever make.

As Burney has repeatedly said, the data is a mess. Science relies on data. Anybody drawing conclusions is a fraud. By all means, share a hypothesis that you can start to support with some data, but don't draw conclusions. It's silly.

that's fine. I stated my opinion and certainly don't expect everyone to agree. I would say that I believe that as much as a layperson can I am relying on as much current data as I can reach. I have also spoken with friends "in the field" so to speak. Epidemiologist, ER doctor, a biologist who does research. Several more. As indicated at the beginning, what I do for a living has necessitated (unfortunately!) that I know way more about this than I wish. My opinion is measured and well considered -- so I thought I'd share on good ol' AWIMB.

Cheers.

[Burney]

Hi Burney. Don't get me started on the numerator! I fully expect to see the headline "Chute fails to open, Skydiver killed by Covid-19." I deliberately omitted that to focus on the denominator. Did you know that hospitals here receive more federal compensation if the cause of death is listed as Covid-19?

Data is always raw, it's how you apply it to determine policy and action. So we now have more data, raw data, that indicates the the denominator (# of cases) is way way low. Some anecdotal, yes, but the Stanford study is clinical. I'll spare you the report and link a news article:

https://www.stanforddaily.com/2020/0...d-study-finds/

Even Gov. Cuomo is finding out that NYC has many times more "cases" than he has used to lockdown the whole state.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/n...s-test-ny.html

There are several admittedly anecdotal occurrences like the Boston Homeless one.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/17/us/bo...eak/index.html


Our decision to lockdown the whole country was based on raw data, but was imperfect as you said. WE have better data now. Let's base our policy and action on what we know now, not what we had a month ago. Open it up. Tightly restrict who goes in Senior retirement villages or any plce with over 70's. Raise awareness of high risk folks who have co-morbidities and let them know what precautions to take. That's my opinion based on what we know on May 4th.

I don't necessarily disagree with your conclusion, but governments can be forgiven for exercising the precautionary principle when faced with raw data of a pandemic that undeniably has caused a serious spike in mortality in other countries. And the flipside of that, of course, is that it's a brave government that then abandons that precautionary principle in the face of other raw data.
It's not an easy call and anyone who is required to make it has my sympathy.

[dismalswamp]

from skeptics:
“I have always wondered how the German nation adapted to the hideous excesses of Hitler and his regime since Germans by and large are sympathetic and stoic and caring people. I happen to be married to a German and have been for 35 years. Now I have a more perfect understanding. If you accept something without questioning authority, then that authority takes ever more advantage of the situation and soon you have a population that is denied the opportunity to question. This is what is happening here and I am concerned that the nation is on the wrong track.”

[redgunamo]

Nonsense, I'm afraid. It was just Germans being German. Nothing to do with H.

from skeptics:
“I have always wondered how the German nation adapted to the hideous excesses of Hitler and his regime since Germans by and large are sympathetic and stoic and caring people. I happen to be married to a German and have been for 35 years. Now I have a more perfect understanding. If you accept something without questioning authority, then that authority takes ever more advantage of the situation and soon you have a population that is denied the opportunity to question. This is what is happening here and I am concerned that the nation is on the wrong track.”

[redgunamo]

Not to mention that for mismanaged authorities everywhere (which is practically all of them), this whole situation has been a surprise bonanza, an unexpected jackpot. Good luck getting any sense of of them right now.

Maybe after they've all banked their money?

This is the truth of it. No government in the UK now would be able to survive a situation in which it was perceived to be acting against scientific advice in order to sacrifice lives for the economy - no matter how rational or logical that position is in the long term. And those, unfortunately, were the terms in which this crisis was framed. The government was damned either way. If we want someone to blame for that, we should look in the mirror.

Oh, and Sweden's situation is simply not comparable. Sweden has a tiny and sparse population and its biggest city has fewer than a million people in it. Saying the UK - with its dense population and teeming megacity - could have done a Sweden is retarded.