So here's the deal on this virus

[Burney]

Why are you comparing anything? When did this turn into a “our dead count is better than yours” contest? If Sweden were trying to have as little deaths as possible I’m pretty sure they’d be in lockdown as well.

Most of these comparisons are - as you say - meaningless. However, they are useful in terms of trying to discern the possible reasons for the discrepancies later on. Now Sweden's calculation - which so far appears to be correct - is that their demographics and geography allowed them to trade a few thousand deaths more than their neighbours for keeping the economy going.
Perfectly reasonable and rational thing to do, but the point is that to extrapolate from that to the UK, where a similar strategy would certainly have resulted in a much sharper spike in deaths (possibly 100,000-ish by now), hospitals overwhelmed and pictures of bodies stacked in hospital corridors is unhelpful an ignores the wider factors.

[Billy Goat Sverige]

Most of these comparisons are - as you say - meaningless. However, they are useful in terms of trying to discern the possible reasons for the discrepancies later on. Now Sweden's calculation - which so far appears to be correct - is that their demographics and geography allowed them to trade a few thousand deaths more than their neighbours for keeping the economy going.
Perfectly reasonable and rational thing to do, but to compare that with the UK, where a similar strategy would certainly resulted in a much sharper spike in deaths (possibly 100,000-ish by now), hospitals overwhelmed and pictures of bodies stacked in hospital corridors is unhelpful an ignores the wider factors.

I agree. As you say some countries needed to respond with what they thought was best for their own demographics etc. Some countries I feel have looked at the outcomes in Italy and Spain and thought they’d see the same things in their hospitals so took a similar approach when it probably wasn’t necessary (thinking of the other Nordic countries). They’re now put up as success stories when the truth is they probably overreacted a little bit. People keep comparing Sweden to Norway in terms of deaths per million as though Norway has won a competition, when they’d probably wish they got to have another crack at it if it only meant an increase in unemployment by 1% instead of 5% (among other things) with only a thousand or so deaths.

Comparing New Zealand to other countries is properly taking the piss.

[AFC East]

No. It almost certainly isn't. In terms of deaths per million, we currently compare similarly or better with countries where the lockdown was earlier and much more severe.

The fact is that it is way, way too early to start drawing conclusions about the numbers of deaths or why they did or didn't occur. Reporting criteria vary, as does methodology.

I agree with your point re: methodology and drawing conclusions.

What countries had an 'earlier' and more severe lockdown that we're comparing similarly to?

[Burney]

I agree. As you say some countries needed to respond with what they thought was best for their own demographics etc. Some countries I feel have looked at the outcomes in Italy and Spain and thought they’d see the same things in their hospitals so took a similar approach when it probably wasn’t necessary (thinking of the other Nordic countries). They’re now put up as success stories when the truth is they probably overreacted a little bit. People keep comparing Sweden to Norway in terms of deaths per million as though Norway has won a competition, when they’d probably wish they got to have another crack at it if it only meant an increase in unemployment by 1% instead of 5% (among other things) with only a thousand or so deaths.

Comparing New Zealand to other countries is properly taking the piss.

It's not just demographic, of course, it's political. Our politics and media at the moment are so polarised that the government will get - attacked whatever it does. And while it's possible to reason and be rational when - as in Sweden's case - you're talking about a few hundred or thousand dead more or less, it's impossible to do that when the numbers are in the tens of thousands. Put simply, no UK government could have made that call and stayed in office.

[AFC East]

4) a deep dive into the data shows that the Death Ratio is most likely lower than .5%.

This is the problem with data and why people who get it are paid a lot of money. There are so many variables at play, any such conclusion is ridiculous. Even if we accept the conclusion, would the rates be the same if ICU capacity was insufficient?

[Billy Goat Sverige]

It's not just demographic, of course, it's political. Our politics and media at the moment are so polarised that the government will get - attacked whatever it does. And while it's possible to reason and be rational when - as in Sweden's case - you're talking about a few hundred or thousand dead more or less, it's impossible to do that when the numbers are in the tens of thousands. Put simply, no UK government could have made that call and stayed in office.

The Prime Minister here has been quite clever really. He just pops up every now and then but for the most part the whole thing is being taken care of by the Public Health Agency and they’re making all the big decisions. Half the dead have come from care homes so even though that’s more a failure of government the Public Health Agency have been getting all the grief.

[Burney]

I agree with your point re: methodology and drawing conclusions.

What countries had an 'earlier' and more severe lockdown that we're comparing similarly to?

France tracks similarly to us and went into a much more severe lockdown a week before us.
Italy and Spain are obviously worse and went into strict lockdown even earlier.
Belgium went into lockdown a week before us and is the worst of the lot.

So this is not about when or how you went into lockdown.

[Burney]

This is the problem with data and why people who get it are paid a lot of money. There are so many variables at play, any such conclusion is ridiculous. Even if we accept the conclusion, would the rates be the same if ICU capacity was insufficient?

The numbers the Chief quotes are meaningless, I'm afraid. Nobody has a clue what the mortality rates of this are because there is such a variation in how infections and deaths are being reported. mortality rates could be significantly higher or lower than we currently think. It's simply too early to draw any conclusions.

[AFC East]

France tracks similarly to us and went into a much more severe lockdown a week before us.
Italy and Spain are obviously worse and went into strict lockdown even earlier.
Belgium went into lockdown a week before us and is the worst of the lot.

So this is not about when or how you went into lockdown.

The point of lockdown has to be related to the curve of cases, rather than the date. You've just broken your own good advice about not jumping to conclusions. Epidemiology suggests that how and when is important, but it's way too early to make conclusions. The data is far too messy.

[AFC East]

The numbers the Chief quotes are meaningless, I'm afraid. Nobody has a clue what the mortality rates of this are because there is such a variation in how infections and deaths are being reported. mortality rates could be significantly higher or lower than we currently think. It's simply too early to draw any conclusions.

I suspect your first statement is the closest to a universal truth that we may see in this thread.