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Thread: If I may just try and articulate my understanding of Coronavirus please Awimb

  1. #1

    If I may just try and articulate my understanding of Coronavirus please Awimb

    The key event to look for at the moment is for there to be a community infection in Australia. Or indeed anywhere in the southern hemisphere. A community infection is where the infection is passed on person to person within that home community. The only reports so far in the southern hemisphere can all be traced back. So the person has been to China, or Italy or some other high risk place in the northern hemisphere and caught it there. The reason for this to be key is that for as long as it doesn't transmit in the southern hemisphere, then Coronavirus has all of the attributes of your typical seasonal flu like virus - It can't survive or transmit well in warmer weather.

    Now assuming that stays the same as we are now, then generally speaking the 17th week of the year is when the temperature and climate has changed enough in the northern hemisphere for flu to stop transmitting here. The 17th week of the year is some time near the end of April, so we have another 6-8 weeks of this and then we're pretty much done.

    Now of course if this virus does prove to be able to survive and transmit in warmer climate, then we are well and truly fcuked!

  2. #2
    Quote Originally Posted by Maravilloso Marvo View Post
    The key event to look for at the moment is for there to be a community infection in Australia. Or indeed anywhere in the southern hemisphere. A community infection is where the infection is passed on person to person within that home community. The only reports so far in the southern hemisphere can all be traced back. So the person has been to China, or Italy or some other high risk place in the northern hemisphere and caught it there. The reason for this to be key is that for as long as it doesn't transmit in the southern hemisphere, then Coronavirus has all of the attributes of your typical seasonal flu like virus - It can't survive or transmit well in warmer weather.

    Now assuming that stays the same as we are now, then generally speaking the 17th week of the year is when the temperature and climate has changed enough in the northern hemisphere for flu to stop transmitting here. The 17th week of the year is some time near the end of April, so we have another 6-8 weeks of this and then we're pretty much done.

    Now of course if this virus does prove to be able to survive and transmit in warmer climate, then we are well and truly fcuked!
    Wise words, mm. Well the last line anyway. I'm off to Malaga on Friday - guess where they have just had the first case

  3. #3
    Quote Originally Posted by Luis Anaconda View Post
    Wise words, mm. Well the last line anyway. I'm off to Malaga on Friday - guess where they have just had the first case
    That'll be Faversham, mate. Don't try and steal my thunder with your fancy globe-trotting ways.

  4. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by Luis Anaconda View Post
    Wise words, mm. Well the last line anyway. I'm off to Malaga on Friday - guess where they have just had the first case
    You should be fine in Malaga, too hot for it to be easily spread...

  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by Monty92 View Post
    That'll be Faversham, mate. Don't try and steal my thunder with your fancy globe-trotting ways.
    Yeah, I think you are fcuked mate. Just don't go near anybody until the end of April is my advice!

  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by Maravilloso Marvo View Post
    You should be fine in Malaga, too hot for it to be easily spread...
    Cheers Marve - I'll probably have a few drinks there to ward it off just in case. That is the best way isn't it?

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by Luis Anaconda View Post
    Cheers Marve - I'll probably have a few drinks there to ward it off just in case. That is the best way isn't it?
    :

    it cured my strep throat last week

  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by bbrian View Post
    :

    it cured my strep throat last week
    wd bb - its the cause of, and solution to all life's problems

  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by Monty92 View Post
    That'll be Faversham, mate. Don't try and steal my thunder with your fancy globe-trotting ways.
    Little Englander

  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by Luis Anaconda View Post
    Little Englander
    A few years in the Reich and he's already calling us 'Englander'.

    It'll be Inselaffen next.

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