If I may just try and articulate my understanding of Coronavirus please Awimb
The key event to look for at the moment is for there to be a community infection in Australia. Or indeed anywhere in the southern hemisphere. A community infection is where the infection is passed on person to person within that home community. The only reports so far in the southern hemisphere can all be traced back. So the person has been to China, or Italy or some other high risk place in the northern hemisphere and caught it there. The reason for this to be key is that for as long as it doesn't transmit in the southern hemisphere, then Coronavirus has all of the attributes of your typical seasonal flu like virus - It can't survive or transmit well in warmer weather.
Now assuming that stays the same as we are now, then generally speaking the 17th week of the year is when the temperature and climate has changed enough in the northern hemisphere for flu to stop transmitting here. The 17th week of the year is some time near the end of April, so we have another 6-8 weeks of this and then we're pretty much done.
Now of course if this virus does prove to be able to survive and transmit in warmer climate, then we are well and truly fcuked!
