So I find myself puzzled over the reporting of the events in the House of Commons

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10-21-2019, 08:33 AM
WES

So I find myself puzzled over the reporting of the events in the House of Commons

at the weekend.

I keep reading what a disaster it was for Boris and Brexit and how unlikely it is that the deal will be passed before Oct 31 etc etc.

Hmmm.

So 306 MPs voted against the Letwin amendment. Is it not safe to assume that if you didn't support the amendment, you are almost certainly going to vote for the deal as it now stands? And as almost all of the 21 former Tories have indicated that they will vote for the deal and almost all of them also voted for the Letwin amendment, isn't that almost 21 more votes for the deal? And isn't the same also true for the 10+ Labour MPs that have said they will vote for the deal?

And doesn't all that mean that Boris now has 320+ votes? :rubchin:
10-21-2019, 08:50 AM
Pokster

Quote:

Originally Posted by WES

at the weekend.

I keep reading what a disaster it was for Boris and Brexit and how unlikely it is that the deal will be passed before Oct 31 etc etc.

Hmmm.

So 306 MPs voted against the Letwin amendment. Is it not safe to assume that if you didn't support the amendment, you are almost certainly going to vote for the deal as it now stands? And as almost all of the 21 former Tories have indicated that they will vote for the deal and almost all of them also voted for the Letwin amendment, isn't that almost 21 more votes for the deal? And isn't the same also true for the 10+ Labour MPs that have said they will vote for the deal?

And doesn't all that mean that Boris now has 320+ votes? :rubchin:

Here is what an "expert" has suggested this morning
1) Government manages to prove it has a majority for its deal today or tomorrow (40%) – Result: We can see the endgame coming in to sight.
2) Parliament manages to indicate instead approval for a softer Brexit (CU or 2nd ref) (40%) – Result: Near-term general election risks increase.
3) Parliament manages to indicate a majority for nothing at all (20%) – Result: Near-term general election risks increase.
10-21-2019, 08:59 AM
Pat Vegas

Quote:

Originally Posted by WES

at the weekend.

I keep reading what a disaster it was for Boris and Brexit and how unlikely it is that the deal will be passed before Oct 31 etc etc.

Hmmm.

So 306 MPs voted against the Letwin amendment. Is it not safe to assume that if you didn't support the amendment, you are almost certainly going to vote for the deal as it now stands? And as almost all of the 21 former Tories have indicated that they will vote for the deal and almost all of them also voted for the Letwin amendment, isn't that almost 21 more votes for the deal? And isn't the same also true for the 10+ Labour MPs that have said they will vote for the deal?

And doesn't all that mean that Boris now has 320+ votes? :rubchin:

Is there a website that can give me a summary of each day as I've no longer have a clue what is going on. :-(
10-21-2019, 09:01 AM
WES

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pat Vegas

Is there a website that can give me a summary of each day as I've no longer have a clue what is going on. :-(

All you need to know Pat is that whatever happens Boris is going to win the next GE with a majority. * :thumbup:

*maybe
10-21-2019, 09:02 AM
Pat Vegas

Quote:

Originally Posted by WES

All you need to know Pat is that whatever happens Boris is going to win the next GE with a majority. * :thumbup:

*maybe

If people can be arsed to vote. I can't anymore
10-21-2019, 09:16 AM
Pokster

Quote:

Originally Posted by WES

All you need to know Pat is that whatever happens Boris is going to win the next GE with a majority. * :thumbup:

*maybe

320-317 in Boris' favour seems to be the consensus
10-21-2019, 09:21 AM
Just Trent

Quote:

Originally Posted by WES

at the weekend.

I keep reading what a disaster it was for Boris and Brexit and how unlikely it is that the deal will be passed before Oct 31 etc etc.

Hmmm.

So 306 MPs voted against the Letwin amendment. Is it not safe to assume that if you didn't support the amendment, you are almost certainly going to vote for the deal as it now stands? And as almost all of the 21 former Tories have indicated that they will vote for the deal and almost all of them also voted for the Letwin amendment, isn't that almost 21 more votes for the deal? And isn't the same also true for the 10+ Labour MPs that have said they will vote for the deal?

And doesn't all that mean that Boris now has 320+ votes? :rubchin:

Isn’t the speaker plotting to derail the second vote? What an embarrassing carry on.
10-21-2019, 09:22 AM
Tony C

At this stage, nothing can overturn the Letwin amendment other than a specific amendment to overturn the Letwin amendment....

I’m not even sure Emperor Palpatine can sort this win out imo :shrug:
10-21-2019, 10:21 AM
Herbert Augustus Chapman

And what is wrong with AWIMB Pat? We have WES to elucidate for us and

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pat Vegas

Is there a website that can give me a summary of each day as I've no longer have a clue what is going on. :-(

he delivers his analyses with such smug assuredness we must assume he has some kind of insight. (helps not to sccrutinize his track record too closely or you'll develop the impression he's talking out of his capacious canadian arse.)
10-21-2019, 10:24 AM
Sir C

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pokster

320-317 in Boris' favour seems to be the consensus

No one knows. NO ONE KNOWS!
10-21-2019, 10:36 AM
Ash

As I said before: As long as Monty is wrong is all that mattress.

Partly because of the intolerable smugness that would eminate daily from the Montster, but mostly because Johnson's 'treaty', like May's, is the worst possible outcome.
10-21-2019, 10:39 AM
PSRB

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ash

As I said before: As long as Monty is wrong is all that mattress.

Partly because of the intolerable smugness that would eminate daily from the Montster, but mostly because Johnson's 'treaty', like May's, is the worst possible outcome.

He's made his bed, so to speak
10-21-2019, 11:40 AM
WES

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ash

As I said before: As long as Monty is wrong is all that mattress.

Partly because of the intolerable smugness that would eminate daily from the Montster, but mostly because Johnson's 'treaty', like May's, is the worst possible outcome.

Really? You mean you don't want control of our borders, laws, money and to leave both the single market and the customs union?

Geez, I mean I know I don't (not too much) but I thought you Leavers did. :shrug:
10-21-2019, 12:01 PM
Ash

Quote:

Originally Posted by WES

Really? You mean you don't want control of our borders, laws, money and to leave both the single market and the customs union?

Geez, I mean I know I don't (not too much) but I thought you Leavers did. :shrug:

I don't have time to go through this but I will for you one ebening this week.