Election predictions??

I'm going to say the polls are completely wrong (again) and the youngsters won't go out and vote. Labour to get below 200 seats.

Burney to vote Tory

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Originally Posted by Billy Goat Sverige

I'm going to say the polls are completely wrong (again) and the youngsters won't go out and vote. Labour to get below 200 seats.

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Young people may vote, but they will do so in concentrations like University towns where it will make no difference. It's entirely possible, in fact, that Labour's vote share could go up on 2015's but they still lose a shedload of seats. That'd give them something to moan about. :hehe:

The fact that the polling is bloody appalling makes predictions very difficult, but I'd say a majority of anything over 50 is a pretty solid bet.

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Originally Posted by Billy Goat Sverige

I'm going to say the polls are completely wrong (again) and the youngsters won't go out and vote. Labour to get below 200 seats.

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Yes, I'm suspecting that the wobble in the polls was a backlash against the worst Tory manifesto I have ever seen, but everyone's settled down again now.

80 seat majority.

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Originally Posted by Sir C

Yes, I'm suspecting that the wobble in the polls was a backlash against the worst Tory manifesto I have ever seen, but everyone's settled down again now.

80 seat majority.

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I have to say I was a big buyer of May's prior to the election campaign.

I'm now hoping she's a much better PM than a campaigner. :-\

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Originally Posted by Sir C

Yes, I'm suspecting that the wobble in the polls was a backlash against the worst Tory manifesto I have ever seen, but everyone's settled down again now.

80 seat majority.

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I also think there are questions to be asked about the role of polling companies. Polls have come out in this campaign so wildly inaccurate as to suggest deliberate attempts to disrupt the campaign.

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Originally Posted by Burney

I also think there are questions to be asked about the role of polling companies. Polls have come out in this campaign so wildly inaccurate as to suggest deliberate attempts to disrupt the campaign.

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YouGov in particular would appear to have been pulling numbers out of their árses.

A chap in the Times this morning claims that Labour's polling suggests the Tories have a 13 point lead.

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Originally Posted by Burney

I also think there are questions to be asked about the role of polling companies. Polls have come out in this campaign so wildly inaccurate as to suggest deliberate attempts to disrupt the campaign.

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This is a good point.

as I mention in my other post I am suspicious of all these have your say/vote adverts aimed at the youngsters.
Youtube is at it. Facebook is at it.

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Originally Posted by World's End Stella

I have to say I was a big buyer of May's prior to the election campaign.

I'm now hoping she's a much better PM than a campaigner. :-\

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Really? I have never been particularly impressed with her, but since she has revealed herself to be some sort of undercover socialist, I fear for our future.

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Originally Posted by Sir C

YouGov in particular would appear to have been pulling numbers out of their árses.

A chap in the Times this morning claims that Labour's polling suggests the Tories have a 13 point lead.

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YouGov have form for this. They're the ones who came out with the poll saying Yes would win in Scotland. This caused huge concessions to be given to the jocks when in fact every other poll was tracking the result more or less accurately.

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Originally Posted by Sir C

Really? I have never been particularly impressed with her, but since she has revealed herself to be some sort of undercover socialist, I fear for our future.

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She is guilty of something. That photo of her with Sturgeon made me say that Sturgeon had nice legs :-(

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Originally Posted by Burney

I also think there are questions to be asked about the role of polling companies. Polls have come out in this campaign so wildly inaccurate as to suggest deliberate attempts to disrupt the campaign.

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It is due to the profilling that Polling co's now do on polls.. they were so far out in 2015 that they now model the polls.... it depends on what the model they have written says to what the outcome would be. E.G they think that more people who say they will vote Tory will actually go to the polling station and vote compared to the Labour voters.. the same with undecided, they model that of x% that say they don't know, more will end up voting Tory than Labour, so they stick that in the Computer and come up with their numbers

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Originally Posted by Sir C

Really? I have never been particularly impressed with her, but since she has revealed herself to be some sort of undercover socialist, I fear for our future.

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Her sole schtick is 'safe pair of hands' and she's fvcked it by running the shoddiest Tory campaign since the early 2000s.

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Originally Posted by Burney

Her sole schtick is 'safe pair of hands' and she's fvcked it by running the shoddiest Tory campaign since the early 2000s.

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I fear for the country with the amount of splinters she must have up her arse from all the fence sitting she does...... strong and stable my arse

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Originally Posted by Pat Vegas

This is a good point.

as I mention in my other post I am suspicious of all these have your say/vote adverts aimed at the youngsters.
Youtube is at it. Facebook is at it.

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It is essentially an anti-tory measure dressed up as public concern. Nobody can object to companies encouraging people to vote, but everyone knows it's actually a party political measure to get more young people to vote Labour.

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Originally Posted by Pokster

It is due to the profilling that Polling co's now do on polls.. they were so far out in 2015 that they now model the polls.... it depends on what the model they have written says to what the outcome would be. E.G they think that more people who say they will vote Tory will actually go to the polling station and vote compared to the Labour voters.. the same with undecided, they model that of x% that say they don't know, more will end up voting Tory than Labour, so they stick that in the Computer and come up with their numbers

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Right. The same as pulling the numbers out of their arses but they can make more money. Always been that way, so far as I know.

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Originally Posted by Burney

Her sole schtick is 'safe pair of hands' and she's fvcked it by running the shoddiest Tory campaign since the early 2000s.

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Another way of looking at it is not that they've run a shoddy campaign, but that for the first time in memory they've known they can push through policies that are disliked by their core voter base and still get away with it come polling day. This is most evident in their social care policy, which seems to be to be a policy that someone of a left-leaning persuasion would ordinarily fully support, if it were not the Tories who were proposing it.

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Originally Posted by Burney

It is essentially an anti-tory measure dressed up as public concern. Nobody can object to companies encouraging people to vote, but everyone knows it's actually a party political measure to get more young people to vote Labour.

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Typical Tory response :hehe:

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Originally Posted by Sir C

Really? I have never been particularly impressed with her, but since she has revealed herself to be some sort of undercover socialist, I fear for our future.

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Well, I liked her only because she seemed to broadly say the right things re fiscal constraint and Brexit, and she struck me as being ruthless. PMs, in fact all leaders, should be ruthless imo and I can't say as the UK has had a PM I would describe that way since I moved here in 95.

I think she's desperate for the job and realized that Brexit could well leave her in a no win situation in the next election so she went for the election and produced a manifesto that tried to appeal to too many and as such appealed to too few.

I'm hoping that once she has the job she returns to Tory roots and is ruthless about it.

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Originally Posted by Pokster

I fear for the country with the amount of splinters she must have up her arse from all the fence sitting she does...... strong and stable my arse

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Her arse, your arse, what is it with you and arses?

Your mum's arse, btw.

I think the Tories will increase their majority, despite the poor campaign they've run. Simply because the youngsters won't turn up to vote, while the old bones within an inch of the grave, will crawl to the polling station out of old habit.

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Originally Posted by Sir C

Her arse, your arse, what is it with you and arses?

Your mum's arse, btw.

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I have had arses on my mind since you mentioned I can lick yours if Arsenal win the league.... so really it is your fault

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Originally Posted by Darren's Dodgy Denim

I think the Tories will increase their majority, despite the poor campaign they've run. Simply because the youngsters won't turn up to vote, while the old bones within an inch of the grave, will crawl to the polling station out of old habit.

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I did mine by post d, didn't need to crawl or get the ol' zimmer frame out :thumbup:

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Originally Posted by Pokster

It is due to the profilling that Polling co's now do on polls.. they were so far out in 2015 that they now model the polls.... it depends on what the model they have written says to what the outcome would be. E.G they think that more people who say they will vote Tory will actually go to the polling station and vote compared to the Labour voters.. the same with undecided, they model that of x% that say they don't know, more will end up voting Tory than Labour, so they stick that in the Computer and come up with their numbers

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The problem is that that sort of modelling isn't an attempt to predict what will actually happen. It's an attempt to predict what will happen if a variety of hypotheticals come into play. Now that's fine in itself, but when it is reported as an accurate reflection of voter intention, it becomes problematic, since it starts to influence the nature of the democratic process itself.

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Originally Posted by Burney

The problem is that that sort of modelling isn't an attempt to predict what will actually happen. It's an attempt to predict what will happen if a variety of hypotheticals come into play. Now that's fine in itself, but when it is reported as an accurate reflection of voter intention, it becomes problematic, since it starts to influence the nature of the democratic process itself.

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True up to a point, but all they are trying to do is to be more accurate than last time, if they aren't then people eventually will just ignire the polls and the co's that make them won't get paid and they will be all sad..... you don't want sad people do you b

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Originally Posted by Monty92

Another way of looking at it is not that they've run a shoddy campaign, but that for the first time in memory they've known they can push through policies that are disliked by their core voter base and still get away with it come polling day. This is most evident in their social care policy, which seems to be to be a policy that someone of a left-leaning persuasion would ordinarily fully support, if it were not the Tories who were proposing it.

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Well they thought they could, but the backlash against their manifesto scared the sh1t out of them and taught them a lesson.

My prediction (change from 2015 result in brackets)

Conservative 360 (+29 seats)
Labour 217 (-15)
SNP 38 (-18)
Lib Dem 14 (+6)
Others (Paddies, Taffies, Green, Speaker) 21 (-2)

Tory win by 50/75 seats.

Not impressed by May. Blown her chances of being a long-term PM.

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Originally Posted by Mo Britain less Europe

Tory win by 50/75 seats.

Not impressed by May. Blown her chances of being a long-term PM.

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:nod: Boristime.

TM clearly isn't one for the campaign trail. But ask yourself one question. Would you rathed have a PM who is capable over a five year term or one who can dazzle in a seven week campaign.