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View Full Version : Surreal election.....hard to know what is really happening



Yesterday Once More
11-28-2019, 10:57 AM
The last couple of weeks, it has felt like Labour have had most of the momentum (pardon the pun) and so much more publicity than the Tories - apart from Andrew Neill and antisemitism most of it has been about their freeeeee money extraveganza and how that nasty Mr Trump (who will be gracing us with his presence at the NATO summit next week) is going to snatch the NHS.

Whereas a month ago you couldn't find a working class bloke from the north or wales to admit they were going to vote Labour, the TV interviews seem to suggest differently now. At the same time, the snippets I've seen from areas in the affluent south suggest the Lib Dem vote is holding up very well, however ineffectual toothy-tits might be regarded as a potential prime minister. Dominic Raab got a dreadful mauling at a hustings meeting in Esher, where he is defending a majority of over 23,000.

We've also been told (by Diane Abbott?) that eleventy million people have applied to join the electoral register in the last week or so, most of them under 30. Stormzy has been reprising his "youthquake" campaign which made such a difference last time.

Yet somehow, somehow, the opinion polls seem to be holding more or less steady for the Tories so far. Ok, so they are averaging about 8% ahead rather than the 11 or 12% some were projecting at the start of the campaign, but by this stage in 2017 Theresa May was in freefall. And, if you look at the odds, they are hardening in favour of a Conservative overall majority - now 2/5, with all other options drifting slowly but surely.

What to believe? I guess it's all about "getting the vote out on the day". It's going to be a long two weeks, that's for sure.....

WES
11-28-2019, 11:02 AM
The last couple of weeks, it has felt like Labour have had most of the momentum (pardon the pun) and so much more publicity than the Tories - apart from Andrew Neill and antisemitism most of it has been about their freeeeee money extraveganza and how that nasty Mr Trump (who will be gracing us with his presence at the NATO summit next week) is going to snatch the NHS.

Whereas a month ago you couldn't find a working class bloke from the north or wales to admit they were going to vote Labour, the TV interviews seem to suggest differently now. At the same time, the snippets I've seen from areas in the affluent south suggest the Lib Dem vote is holding up very well, however ineffectual toothy-tits might be regarded as a potential prime minister. Dominic Raab got a dreadful mauling at a hustings meeting in Esher, where he is defending a majority of over 23,000.

We've also been told (by Diane Abbott?) that eleventy million people have applied to join the electoral register in the last week or so, most of them under 30. Stormzy has been reprising his "youthquake" campaign which made such a difference last time.

Yet somehow, somehow, the opinion polls seem to be holding more or less steady for the Tories so far. Ok, so they are averaging about 8% ahead rather than the 11 or 12% some were projecting at the start of the campaign, but by this stage in 2017 Theresa May was in freefall. And, if you look at the odds, they are hardening in favour of a Conservative overall majority - now 2/5, with all other options drifting slowly but surely.

What to believe? I guess it's all about "getting the vote out on the day". It's going to be a long two weeks, that's for sure.....

Yeah but would you serve roast ham and roast turkey on Christmas Day, YOM?

Tony C
11-28-2019, 01:40 PM
Still looking promising odds wise

1/33 Conservative Win and 1/2 for Conservative majority

But a very recent trend (last 4 or 5 years) has been these markets being unpredictable.

Not sure what it is...maybe people basing their logic and bets on historical trends which are completely failing in the social media age??

But

Trump was freely available at 5/1 the night he mauled Hillary
No Brexit and a big May majority were red hot favs on the night but that soon turned into a night of misery

So quite possible the above current odds are incorrect.

-

As a comparison of the 1/2 quoted above for a Con Maj...Sadiq Khan is also 1/2 to win the next mayoral elections.

But two completely different markets I guess...

Tony C
11-28-2019, 06:02 PM
MRP poll results out...359 seats for Conservatives

Best price is 2/5