zimgunner
02-13-2014, 09:40 PM
Some Gooners are saying that we cannot win the league if we keep on choking in big games.
Others say we can if we continue to be more consistent than our rivals against lower-ranked teams.
Who is right?
I decided to look at the data.
This spreadsheet is a great resource:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AlzInvUrcFR-dEx EVzVCRlZjSXZHV24wZjFNRnlOQVE&usp=sharing (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AlzInvUrcFR-dExEVzVCRlZjSXZHV24wZjFNRnlOQVE&usp=sharing)
I did the following:
1. Calculated the average points gained by City, Chelsea, and Arsenal against the teams ranked from 8 and down in the current table. (Results: Arsenal 2.61; Chelsea 2.38; City 2.18)
2. Calculated how many points City, Chelsea, and Arsenal will gain against these teams out of their remaining fixtures.
3. Calculated how many points City, Chelsea, and Arsenal would gain against teams in the top 7 of the current table, assuming that we lose to City and Chelsea, and that all other matchups in this category are draws.
4. Added City, Chelsea, and Arsenal's points from (2) and (3) to their current points.
Result:
1. Chelsea 82
2. City 79.71
3. Arsenal 78.88
So the naysayers are right, at least according to the data.
(In fact, we are in an even weaker position than the above would suggest, because City and Chelsea will likely approve their form against lower-ranked teams, and there is no guarantee that we will draw our top-8 matchups other than City and Chelsea.)
PLEASE FEEL FREE TO CHECK MY DATA AND CALCULATIONS!!
Others say we can if we continue to be more consistent than our rivals against lower-ranked teams.
Who is right?
I decided to look at the data.
This spreadsheet is a great resource:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AlzInvUrcFR-dEx EVzVCRlZjSXZHV24wZjFNRnlOQVE&usp=sharing (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AlzInvUrcFR-dExEVzVCRlZjSXZHV24wZjFNRnlOQVE&usp=sharing)
I did the following:
1. Calculated the average points gained by City, Chelsea, and Arsenal against the teams ranked from 8 and down in the current table. (Results: Arsenal 2.61; Chelsea 2.38; City 2.18)
2. Calculated how many points City, Chelsea, and Arsenal will gain against these teams out of their remaining fixtures.
3. Calculated how many points City, Chelsea, and Arsenal would gain against teams in the top 7 of the current table, assuming that we lose to City and Chelsea, and that all other matchups in this category are draws.
4. Added City, Chelsea, and Arsenal's points from (2) and (3) to their current points.
Result:
1. Chelsea 82
2. City 79.71
3. Arsenal 78.88
So the naysayers are right, at least according to the data.
(In fact, we are in an even weaker position than the above would suggest, because City and Chelsea will likely approve their form against lower-ranked teams, and there is no guarantee that we will draw our top-8 matchups other than City and Chelsea.)
PLEASE FEEL FREE TO CHECK MY DATA AND CALCULATIONS!!