The Tony
04-02-2013, 01:27 PM
JESUS CHRIST :hehe:
By Kerry Mcdermott 2 April 2013
Betting slips at the ready; a Cambridge University maths whizz claims to have come up with a formula to predict the Grand National winner - just in time for this year's race.
Academic William Hartson, 65, examined the names and ages of all the winning horses in the event's 174 year history to develop his scoring system, and found that victors are most likely to have one-word names beginning with the letter S, R, M or C.
The mathematician said he will be putting his money on the bookies' second favourite Seabass, after the Irish-trained racehorse scored an impressive 13 out of 16 on his own scale.
Mr Hartson's study showed that winners' names usually consist of either eight or 10 letters - closely followed by seven or 11 - and that the horses are typically aged nine or ten.
He used these results to develop a scoring system, which allowed him to rate the 40 horses that will line-up at Aintree Racecourse on Saturday.
As a 10-year-old horse with a one-word name that begins with S and runs to seven letters, Seabass came out on top.
It was followed by outsider Tatenen and Teaforthree in the study commissioned by bookies William Hill.
Mr Hartson, who is the author of several books, including 'The Book of Numbers graduated from the University of Cambridge with an MA in maths.
After examining four criteria - the number of letters in the horse's name, the first letter of the name, the number of words in the name, and the horse's age - he awarded each horse a maximum of four points in each criteria, depending on how closely they fit the historic results.
For example, a horse whose name is eight or ten letters long - the most successful in the history of the race - was awarded four points.
But a horse with nine or twelve letters - historically less successful - received just one point.
Mr Hartson said: 'Seabass is the only horse with consistently high scores across all four criteria.
'It begins with S, is a one-word name, aged ten years and has seven letters, which is only slightly short of the preferred eight.
'Tatenen scored an impressive 13/16 while Teaforthree scored 12/16 and shouldn't be ruled out - but their scoring pattern is less consistent.'
Kate Miller, from William Hill, said: 'We want to make having a flutter on the Grand National as simple as possible this year.
'Alongside easy to use betting slips in shops and online, we've now hopefully made picking the winning horse easy as well. There's nothing fishy about the result.
'Seabass - who is currently at 9/1 - was joint-favourite last year and finished in third place.
'Let's hope William's system holds up this year to push Seabass into first place,' she said.
Seabass finished third behind Neptune Collonges and Sunnyhillboy in last year's Grand National at Aintree.
The horse was ridden by Ted Walsh's daughter Katie, who is due to take the reigns again this year.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2302763/Grand -National-2013-Researchers-claim-predict-winning-horse--mone y-Seabass.html#ixzz2PJClgXAV (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2302763/Grand-National-2013-Researchers-claim-predict-winning-horse--money-Seabass.html#ixzz2PJClgXAV)
By Kerry Mcdermott 2 April 2013
Betting slips at the ready; a Cambridge University maths whizz claims to have come up with a formula to predict the Grand National winner - just in time for this year's race.
Academic William Hartson, 65, examined the names and ages of all the winning horses in the event's 174 year history to develop his scoring system, and found that victors are most likely to have one-word names beginning with the letter S, R, M or C.
The mathematician said he will be putting his money on the bookies' second favourite Seabass, after the Irish-trained racehorse scored an impressive 13 out of 16 on his own scale.
Mr Hartson's study showed that winners' names usually consist of either eight or 10 letters - closely followed by seven or 11 - and that the horses are typically aged nine or ten.
He used these results to develop a scoring system, which allowed him to rate the 40 horses that will line-up at Aintree Racecourse on Saturday.
As a 10-year-old horse with a one-word name that begins with S and runs to seven letters, Seabass came out on top.
It was followed by outsider Tatenen and Teaforthree in the study commissioned by bookies William Hill.
Mr Hartson, who is the author of several books, including 'The Book of Numbers graduated from the University of Cambridge with an MA in maths.
After examining four criteria - the number of letters in the horse's name, the first letter of the name, the number of words in the name, and the horse's age - he awarded each horse a maximum of four points in each criteria, depending on how closely they fit the historic results.
For example, a horse whose name is eight or ten letters long - the most successful in the history of the race - was awarded four points.
But a horse with nine or twelve letters - historically less successful - received just one point.
Mr Hartson said: 'Seabass is the only horse with consistently high scores across all four criteria.
'It begins with S, is a one-word name, aged ten years and has seven letters, which is only slightly short of the preferred eight.
'Tatenen scored an impressive 13/16 while Teaforthree scored 12/16 and shouldn't be ruled out - but their scoring pattern is less consistent.'
Kate Miller, from William Hill, said: 'We want to make having a flutter on the Grand National as simple as possible this year.
'Alongside easy to use betting slips in shops and online, we've now hopefully made picking the winning horse easy as well. There's nothing fishy about the result.
'Seabass - who is currently at 9/1 - was joint-favourite last year and finished in third place.
'Let's hope William's system holds up this year to push Seabass into first place,' she said.
Seabass finished third behind Neptune Collonges and Sunnyhillboy in last year's Grand National at Aintree.
The horse was ridden by Ted Walsh's daughter Katie, who is due to take the reigns again this year.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2302763/Grand -National-2013-Researchers-claim-predict-winning-horse--mone y-Seabass.html#ixzz2PJClgXAV (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2302763/Grand-National-2013-Researchers-claim-predict-winning-horse--money-Seabass.html#ixzz2PJClgXAV)