Interesting

[Nicosia Gooner]

Pakistan

http://www.actuarialoutpost.com/actuarial_discussion_forum/s howthread.php?t=250351 (http://www.actuarialoutpost.com/actuarial_discussion_forum/showthread.php?t=250351)

[C&B]

[Fast Eddie :L:]

No sweat

[Chief Arrowhead]

act like there might as well not even be an election because of what their favorite polls say. Most polls that have Obama slightly ahead are sampling Dems to the tune of 6 to 8 percent more than Republicans. The assumption is that the electorate will replicate 2008 in terms of party turnout.

I do know that in 2008 a healthy percent of Republicans sat out the 2008 election, or voted for 3rd party candidates, because they couldn't stomach the milquetoast John McCain. Also there was a messianic fervor for Obama that I had not seen before. It was treated as an historic occasion. Minorities voted in higher percentages than ever. Youth vote was very high and about 98% for Obama. There were also a lot of folks that wanted the Hope and Change that Obama was promising.

Go to 2012: There is a serious amount of disillusion out there. Obama could never have kept the far reaching promises, but he has not only not kept themm he has shattered them. The Youth is completely disinterested. Many folks feel like they were sold a bill of goods.

At the same time in 2012 there is a real energy on the GOP side that Obama needs to go. We saw this kind of fervor in the 2010 elections and all indications are that the feeeling is just as strong today.

Not that this means that all will turn and vote for the other candidate. My point is that I do not see how the Dem/GOP split will be anything like the electorate in 2008, which makes these polls rather specious.

Even in these polls it is shown that Romney has anywhere from a 10 to 20 point lead among Independents. The traditional "gender gap" has largely closed, polling about even with Romney with women. The Jewish voters are not going for Obama in nearly the same percentage. Neither are Catholics. Nor Hispanics. All of these demographic groups have their numbers for Obama down significantly compared to 2008.

All the Sunday talk shows acted like it was basically a done deal, the election was over and Obama wins easily. Yet even if you look at it state by state you see that unless the turnout ad group percentages are close to resembling 2008 Romney wins.

I'm posting this with no motive other than to highlight the disparity in the polling data that folks seem to be taking as the truth. The reality is that the truth, as it is, will occur on Tuesday. We'll find out for sure, then , how accurate these polls are.

My take on it is that people lie. People lie to the pollsters and they do it a lot. I think there will be a lot of people who will say they are voting for Obama, vote for Romney, then walk out and say they voted for Obama. It's a lot easier to tell folks you are voting for Obama rather than take a bunch of guff about your vote for Romney and the inference that a vote for someone other than Obama means you are a racist, or you don't care about poor people, or you are in favor of dirty air and dirty water, or against contraception, or against women or minorities, etc. etc. etc. It's the path of least resistance to tell people you are voting for Obama and be left alone.

We shall see.

[Arsenes' Wanger- Bring back Modd]

Anything that pisses Chiefy off, we are for. http://www.awimb.com/images/smiley_icons/hehe.gif

[Chief Arrowhead]

It was a Public Policy Polling call. I might be the only 25-34 year old African-American in Missouri voting for Romney .

[redgunamo]

[wagoaw (out only, no in)]