Hmmm. Churches in France do seem to be suffering a terrible run of luck lately.

[Pokster]

Of course it may well have been an accident, but what you've missed is the link in b's original post describing the disturbing number of incidents recently at catholic churches in France. So that surely weighs on the balance of probablilities?

I haven't missed the link, I would suggest the huge probaility that it is an accident, with a small chance it was arson....which seems to be the opposite of what b is suggesting

[PSRB]

I haven't missed the link, I would suggest the huge probaility that it is an accident, with a small chance it was arson....which seems to be the opposite of what b is suggesting

In fairness, Newsweek is suggesting that. B, is merely leading us to the article and wondering if there is an element of truth to it

[WES]

In fairness, Newsweek is suggesting that. B, is merely leading us to the article and wondering if there is an element of truth to it

I would think the fact that it was undergoing renovation at the time would certainly add to the likelihood that it was an accident.

Not sure why anyone would assume it was an act of terrorism and laugh at any alternatives. Leaving it open as a possibility, certainly.

[Rich]

I would think the fact that it was undergoing renovation at the time would certainly add to the likelihood that it was an accident.

Not sure why anyone would assume it was an act of terrorism and laugh at any alternatives. Leaving it open as a possibility, certainly.

Have you considered that one of the workmen may have had an ulterior motive?

[PSRB]

Have you considered that one of the workmen may have had an ulterior motive?

There is a picture of the early stages of the fire on the BBC website, it definitely starts in the roof. Which would seem to point to an accident.

[Rich]

There is a picture of the early stages of the fire on the BBC website, it definitely starts in the roof. Which would seem to point to an accident.

I don't think anyone agrees that it was probably an accident. But it might have been deliberate.

[Sir C]

I haven't missed the link, I would suggest the huge probaility that it is an accident, with a small chance it was arson....which seems to be the opposite of what b is suggesting

Well, I'd say that without the ongoing story of churches being targeted in France your "huge probaility that it is an accident, with a small chance it was arson" would be the sensible conclusion, but when you add in the knowledge that recently this stuff keeps happeneing, surely your view changes a little? I mean "huge probability" versus "small chance"? Really?

[Pokster]

Well, I'd say that without the ongoing story of churches being targeted in France your "huge probaility that it is an accident, with a small chance it was arson" would be the sensible conclusion, but when you add in the knowledge that recently this stuff keeps happeneing, surely your view changes a little? I mean "huge probability" versus "small chance"? Really?

Yes, really

[Sir C]

Yes, really

In that case we either have an extremely different view of probablities or you are furiously displaying your woke credentials.

Are you Ian Harvey in disguise?

[Pokster]

In that case we either have an extremely different view of probablities or you are furiously displaying your woke credentials.

Are you Ian Harvey in disguise?

Well since the Paris Fire Authority have already said they don't believe it is Arson, unless you are assuming they are lying to protect some group, then i would suggest it was an accident is a very high probability