They’ve be hovering around 10/1 for most of today...so a 9% chance.

Since Australia burnt their reviews England are now 6/1 or a 14% chance.

If they get through today with no more wickets I think they would be around about a 3/1 to 7/2 chance or ie 22% to 25% chance.

Which is fair given a collapse can happen at any moment.