I got predictions of that result, from those in the know, to within about 1%. I ignored them.
What makes that even more stupid is that the same sources told me the outcome of the referendum pretty much spot on. I ignored them then as well and clearly failed to learn the lesson.
Its intelligence gathered from street level campaigning and canvassing. It tends to reflect the polls reasonably closely, usually with a particular slight one way but the prediction is recognisable. On these two occasions it wasnt, at all. I assumed it was wrong. It was wrong in 92 and again in 2015. I ignored it both times and was proved right.
So, its roughly 2-2
I share Monty's concern.
You Brits really are a peculiar lot. My cynicism is prompted by the following exchange between myself and someone of considerable intellect who works for this investment bank of ours:
Me: You can't tell me that you would actually vote for Corbyn? That Corbyn as PM does not scare the crap out of you?
Him: He's better than the Tories, he actually cares about people
Me: But you understand that he's in the hip pocket of the unions, wants to implement economic policies that went out of fashion in the early 80s mostly because they resulted in Great Britain almost being bankrupted and that - crucially - he failed his A levels. You're happy with a socialist who failed his A levels and is in the pocket of the unions running the country?
Him: Yeah but look at how badly the Tories have screwed up
Me: Yes, they are far from perfect but are you really comfortable with Corbyn as PM given how limited he is intellectually?
Him: He cares about people, the Tories don't
If he can think that way, imagine how stupid people will feel