I withhold judgement until WES has given his intelligent and insightful analysis of

[redgunamo]

What IS the problem?

The last two results have been coming, pretty much all season.

The only thing that has genuinely shocked me is that the entire world seems to completely misunderstand what the problem is.

We wont be winning the league, as I said a few months ago. Top four will do this year, although that may well not be straightforward at all. Hopefully by the end of the year either Arteta's plan will have started working or he will have worked out a new one.

[Pat Vegas]

What IS the problem?

I used to enjoy watching us more when we were much err erm worserer.

[Peter]

What IS the problem?

We have changed the way we play to accommodate the new midfield, and specifically Declan Rice. So we no longer play through a high press, we play around or over it. And we can't pass through the lines in midfield. That only leaves trying to play through the low block from wide areas which is exactly what team are set up to prevent when they play us.

Right now we are seeing a significant dip in form from the wide players- Saka, Martinelli, White and Zinchenko. I dont know why but with the forwards I think it is related to confidence.

[WES]

We have changed the way we play to accommodate the new midfield, and specifically Declan Rice. So we no longer play through a high press, we play around or over it. And we can't pass through the lines in midfield. That only leaves trying to play through the low block from wide areas which is exactly what team are set up to prevent when they play us.

Right now we are seeing a significant dip in form from the wide players- Saka, Martinelli, White and Zinchenko. I dont know why but with the forwards I think it is related to confidence.

We no longer play through a high press? And you are suggesting that Declan Rice is one of the reasons? I would disagree on both points. If we were struggling to pass our way through the press this would show in lower possession and that isn't happening. We continue to control the game mostly but are struggling in front of goal and have had more defensive lapses than expected. See Gabriel's defending for Fulham's equaliser and Kiwior's for their 2nd.

Teams are doubling our wide players more than they used to and we're struggling to come up with plan B when they do so. And we have some players who are out of form. Gabriel, all our currently fit FBs, as examples. Saka and Martinelli's form may be because of their frustration at facing two players every time they touch it.

Arteta needs to figure that out and get our good players playing better.

[Peter]

We no longer play through a high press? And you are suggesting that Declan Rice is one of the reasons? I would disagree on both points. If we were struggling to pass our way through the press this would show in lower possession and that isn't happening. We continue to control the game mostly but are struggling in front of goal and have had more defensive lapses than expected. See Gabriel's defending for Fulham's equaliser and Kiwior's for their 2nd.

Teams are doubling our wide players more than they used to and we're struggling to come up with plan B when they do so. And we have some players who are out of form. Gabriel, all our currently fit FBs, as examples. Saka and Martinelli's form may be because of their frustration at facing two players every time they touch it.

Arteta needs to figure that out and get our good players playing better.

Teams were doubling on our wide players last season, that hasn't changed. Nor have our attacking players- same guys that ripped up the league last year. But last season, when Saka face two defenders he had Odegaard inside him and White outside. 90% of the time this season neither of them are there. Martinelli is almost always on his own.

Watch some highlights of games last season and see how often we played one touch football through a high press. Try and find an example of that this season- you will struggle, trust me. I havent looked at the stats but I will bet if you see the percentage of long and medium passes played by Raya it will be considerably higher than those by Ramsdale last season.

As good as Rice is, he is not at Partey's technical level. He doesnt like receiving the ball on the edge of his own box and he cannot play through the line like Partey does.

I am not saying this is an accident. Arteta must have known what he was buying. I think his idea was we would mix up between short and long play but it isn't working. The combination of Rice, Havertz and Raya, and a collective concern over their confidence, has made playing out short from the back far more difficult.

In recent months the only game where we regularly got behind the opponent was Villa and their high line. And we ****ed that up!

[WES]

Teams were doubling on our wide players last season, that hasn't changed. Nor have our attacking players- same guys that ripped up the league last year. But last season, when Saka face two defenders he had Odegaard inside him and White outside. 90% of the time this season neither of them are there. Martinelli is almost always on his own.

Watch some highlights of games last season and see how often we played one touch football through a high press. Try and find an example of that this season- you will struggle, trust me. I havent looked at the stats but I will bet if you see the percentage of long and medium passes played by Raya it will be considerably higher than those by Ramsdale last season.

As good as Rice is, he is not at Partey's technical level. He doesnt like receiving the ball on the edge of his own box and he cannot play through the line like Partey does.

I am not saying this is an accident. Arteta must have known what he was buying. I think his idea was we would mix up between short and long play but it isn't working. The combination of Rice, Havertz and Raya, and a collective concern over their confidence, has made playing out short from the back far more difficult.

In recent months the only game where we regularly got behind the opponent was Villa and their high line. And we ****ed that up!

There are degrees, Peter, not everything is binary. Our wingers are being doubled far more this year than last year. Or possibly we aren't moving the ball as quickly forward which allows them to be doubled more, or possibly both. But it is very noticeable that Gabi and Saka are doubled up on much more than last year.

We shall have to disagree on Rice, I have never seen him look uncomfortable receiving the ball on the edge of our box. If he wasn't comfortable doing that in this system, do you really think Arteta would have paid 105mil for him?

The only reason we are not top of the league is we are in poor form in the final third, these things happen some times. It is Arteta's job to fix it asap.

[Peter]

There are degrees, Peter, not everything is binary. Our wingers are being doubled far more this year than last year. Or possibly we aren't moving the ball as quickly forward which allows them to be doubled more, or possibly both. But it is very noticeable that Gabi and Saka are doubled up on much more than last year.

We shall have to disagree on Rice, I have never seen him look uncomfortable receiving the ball on the edge of our box. If he wasn't comfortable doing that in this system, do you really think Arteta would have paid 105mil for him?

The only reason we are not top of the league is we are in poor form in the final third, these things happen some times. It is Arteta's job to fix it asap.

The point of playing through a high press is not to retain possession. It is to draw in the opponent so you can get behind them. In other words, get your wide players at them before they have a chance to double up, for example. Not doing it would be more likely to show in the stats on clear chances and expected goals, not in the amount of possession. Indeed, a slower and more cautious approach to possession would yield higher possession and fewer clear chances. This is exactly where we find ourselves.

On Rice, do I really think Arteta would have spent the money if he had thought Rice couldn't play in our system? Well, he spent the money and Rice is not as technically competent in possession as Partey- I don't think you can argue with either of those statements. Arteta is a very precise coach so I think we can assume he was aware he was sacrificing something and was willing to do so given everything else that Rice brings. All of our stats suggest a change in our style of play.

I would guess the extent of the change in our style is not deliberate and, as I said, has been dictated by a lack of confidence. Does anyone really want to see Raya pinging balls around the box at the moment? In time, hopefully we will get the balance right. So far this season we have sacrificed rhythm for control and the results have not been great, partly because so many of the goals we concede are from unforced errors/ idiocy rather than lack of control.

Explaining all of this in terms of form is misleading. Throughout the season we have been scoring at a lower rate than last year and creating fewer chances. Our expected goals have been lower and the percentage of goals from set pieces higher. Have we been in poor form all season, or has our style of play changed?

[WES]

The point of playing through a high press is not to retain possession. It is to draw in the opponent so you can get behind them. In other words, get your wide players at them before they have a chance to double up, for example. Not doing it would be more likely to show in the stats on clear chances and expected goals, not in the amount of possession. Indeed, a slower and more cautious approach to possession would yield higher possession and fewer clear chances. This is exactly where we find ourselves.

On Rice, do I really think Arteta would have spent the money if he had thought Rice couldn't play in our system? Well, he spent the money and Rice is not as technically competent in possession as Partey- I don't think you can argue with either of those statements. Arteta is a very precise coach so I think we can assume he was aware he was sacrificing something and was willing to do so given everything else that Rice brings. All of our stats suggest a change in our style of play.

I would guess the extent of the change in our style is not deliberate and, as I said, has been dictated by a lack of confidence. Does anyone really want to see Raya pinging balls around the box at the moment? In time, hopefully we will get the balance right. So far this season we have sacrificed rhythm for control and the results have not been great, partly because so many of the goals we concede are from unforced errors/ idiocy rather than lack of control.

Explaining all of this in terms of form is misleading. Throughout the season we have been scoring at a lower rate than last year and creating fewer chances. Our expected goals have been lower and the percentage of goals from set pieces higher. Have we been in poor form all season, or has our style of play changed?

Your logic baffles me, Peter. You have gone from 'Partey is more technical in possession than Rice' to 'Rice is therefore not technically skilled enough to pass the ball through midfield and as a result Arteta has changed our style of play'.

This, I'm afraid Peter, is a logical leap of epic proportions. We certainly have seen a range and accuracy of passing from Rice that I never saw from Partey. Is Partey more technically skilled on the ball? Maybe, but if so there isn't much in it. And once again, the idea that Arteta would buy a DM not capable of passing the ball through midfield given how he wants us to play is absurd.

I think the biggest reason our style of play is more conservative is because the opposition have been more negative towards us after our performance last season, they have forced it upon us and we now must adjust. No one thought we had any chance of coming close to winning the league at the start of last season, and other teams played accordingly. Now we are back to the 'park the bus days' of the glory Wenger years. We need to adjust and we need our best players to play better.

And it bears repeating, two games ago we were top of the league and of the subsequent two games only one can be considered a poor performance. Writing us off at this point strikes me as rather premature and very negative.

So unlike you, Peter

[Peter]

Your logic baffles me, Peter. You have gone from 'Partey is more technical in possession than Rice' to 'Rice is therefore not technically skilled enough to pass the ball through midfield and as a result Arteta has changed our style of play'.

This, I'm afraid Peter, is a logical leap of epic proportions. We certainly have seen a range and accuracy of passing from Rice that I never saw from Partey. Is Partey more technically skilled on the ball? Maybe, but if so there isn't much in it. And once again, the idea that Arteta would buy a DM not capable of passing the ball through midfield given how he wants us to play is absurd.

I think the biggest reason our style of play is more conservative is because the opposition have been more negative towards us after our performance last season, they have forced it upon us and we now must adjust. No one thought we had any chance of coming close to winning the league at the start of last season, and other teams played accordingly. Now we are back to the 'park the bus days' of the glory Wenger years. We need to adjust and we need our best players to play better.

And it bears repeating, two games ago we were top of the league and of the subsequent two games only one can be considered a poor performance. Writing us off at this point strikes me as rather premature and very negative.

So unlike you, Peter

As already said, I am not writing us off at this point. I said months ago we wouldn't win the league.

It is an observable fact that Rice's qualities are different to Partey's. There is no logical leap to suggest that having a new midfield of different players has changed our style of play. It would be rather odd if it hadn't. You may feel that Rice and Partey are on a similar level in terms of their passing range but I don't. You should also consider Havertz and Xhaka here. Xhaka used to take the ball near his own box, under pressure. Not sure I can recall Havertz doing that at any stage.

You seem to be suggesting that we are more conservative because our opponents are most conservative towards us. I am not sure that even makes sense. It also doesn't explain how we are more conservative. You've dismissed my explanation. What is yours?

[WES]

As already said, I am not writing us off at this point. I said months ago we wouldn't win the league.

It is an observable fact that Rice's qualities are different to Partey's. There is no logical leap to suggest that having a new midfield of different players has changed our style of play. It would be rather odd if it hadn't. You may feel that Rice and Partey are on a similar level in terms of their passing range but I don't. You should also consider Havertz and Xhaka here. Xhaka used to take the ball near his own box, under pressure. Not sure I can recall Havertz doing that at any stage.

You seem to be suggesting that we are more conservative because our opponents are most conservative towards us. I am not sure that even makes sense. It also doesn't explain how we are more conservative. You've dismissed my explanation. What is yours?

You misunderstood my point, we aren't more conservative, our opponents are playing more conservatively against us which makes it harder for us to play.

Other factors: Jesus missed the first part of the season and is not playing at the same level as he did last year; Havertz clearly struggled to adjust and has played at a level below Xhaka although in the long run I think he will be an improvement; Arteta may look at the 3 draws that cost us the league whilst conceding 7 goals and think that as a team we needed to defend better

Perhaps there are other factors but one that you won't find is our 105mil DM signing not being capable of passing the ball through midfield