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Thread: May gone.

  1. #31
    Quote Originally Posted by Burney View Post
    I got the 2017 one wrong. I got 2015 and Brexit spot on despite polls calling them the other way. Still a pretty good record.
    I really wish people wouldn't say that about the 2015/16 polls. Psephology is about looking beyond the headline figure.

    I called Brexit a little over a week before the vote because the polls were mostly saying that.

    In the week before Jo Cox's murder, Leave was on average 4-5 pts ahead. Then after the killing people were less inclined to tell pollsters they were voting the same way as a racist murderer, which makes sense.

    But if you have a look at how the polls jumped, it's clear what happened.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinio...eferendum#2016

    The week before the death had Leave 8-2 Remain. After her death it was 10-3 the other way.

    Also, Ed M was well behind on both Best PM and Economic Competence. And no HMLO has ever become PM if behind on either of those, let alone both.

    It was clear that while they'd tell the pollsters they'd vote Lab cos they were unhappy with Dave, that given they also told them that Ed was no use as a PM and couldn't be trusted with the economy, that when they came to think about it during the campaign, they wouldn't vote for him in the polling booth.

    And look where that got us.

  2. #32
    Quote Originally Posted by Ganpati's Goonerz--AFC's Aboriginal Fertility Cult View Post
    I really wish people wouldn't say that about the 2015/16 polls. Psephology is about looking beyond the headline figure.

    I called Brexit a little over a week before the vote because the polls were mostly saying that.

    In the week before Jo Cox's murder, Leave was on average 4-5 pts ahead. Then after the killing people were less inclined to tell pollsters they were voting the same way as a racist murderer, which makes sense.

    But if you have a look at how the polls jumped, it's clear what happened.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinio...eferendum#2016

    The week before the death had Leave 8-2 Remain. After her death it was 10-3 the other way.

    Also, Ed M was well behind on both Best PM and Economic Competence. And no HMLO has ever become PM if behind on either of those, let alone both.

    It was clear that while they'd tell the pollsters they'd vote Lab cos they were unhappy with Dave, that given they also told them that Ed was no use as a PM and couldn't be trusted with the economy, that when they came to think about it during the campaign, they wouldn't vote for him in the polling booth.

    And look where that got us.
    I called Brexit before the referendum was even announced.

    And it was obvious the country wasnít going to vote for a nerdy, creepy Jew with a commie dad and zero charisma. It was the right decision not to.

    People over-complicate these things. Sometimes itís just obvious to anyone with eyes in their head, a half-decent brain and an understanding of what the British are actually like.

  3. #33
    Quote Originally Posted by Burney View Post
    I called Brexit before the referendum was even announced.

    And it was obvious the country wasn’t going to vote for a nerdy, creepy Jew with a commie dad and zero charisma. It was the right decision not to.

    People over-complicate these things. Sometimes it’s just obvious to anyone with eyes in their head, a half-decent brain and an understanding of what the British are actually like.
    Go on, then.

    If there's a 2nd vote, on remain vs no deal, how will that pan out?

  4. #34

  5. #35
    Quite looking forward to a Hard Brexit...has the feel of that Y2K bug when everyone thought they’d wake up to us being back in the stone ages but in reality it’s no different to having a massive bet in the Grand National imo

    Shame we couldn’t get a grand send off like the Hong Kong lot imo

  6. #36
    Quote Originally Posted by Tony C View Post
    Quite looking forward to a Hard Brexit...has the feel of that Y2K bug when everyone thought they’d wake up to us being back in the stone ages but in reality it’s no different to having a massive bet in the Grand National imo

    Shame we couldn’t get a grand send off like the Hong Kong lot imo
    Except that the reason Y2K didn't cause any problems is **** loads of experts spent a lot of time and money fixing it.

  7. #37
    Quote Originally Posted by Ganpati's Goonerz--AFC's Aboriginal Fertility Cult View Post
    Go on, then.

    If there's a 2nd vote, on remain vs no deal, how will that pan out?
    Letís face it, awimb on politics is as accurate as a broken clock. The last few months Iíve read Nostradamus like attempts to make lousy predictions match the reality. I canít think of anyone Iíd exclude.

    Parliamentary politics is about relationships and deals. How could any of us have enough insight to predict what will happen with any certainty?

    As for BoJo, I agree with B, he will win an election, and will immediately tone down his rhetoric, unlike Trump. BoJo will have fulfilled his lifeís ambition and is much thicker skinned.

    We saw the prototype as mayor. Some will describe him as asinine and he will be fairly devoid of any interesting ideas, but he will be pretty steady none the less.

  8. #38
    Quote Originally Posted by AFC East View Post
    Let’s face it, awimb on politics is as accurate as a broken clock. The last few months I’ve read Nostradamus like attempts to make lousy predictions match the reality. I can’t think of anyone I’d exclude.

    Parliamentary politics is about relationships and deals. How could any of us have enough insight to predict what will happen with any certainty?

    As for BoJo, I agree with B, he will win an election, and will immediately tone down his rhetoric, unlike Trump. BoJo will have fulfilled his life’s ambition and is much thicker skinned.

    We saw the prototype as mayor. Some will describe him as asinine and he will be fairly devoid of any interesting ideas, but he will be pretty steady none the less.
    He's not asinine. Donkeys are cool. They're much nicer than Brexiters or Tories. Benjamin the Donkey was ace in Animal Farm. He was the only non-pig who could read.

    Don-keys good. Bo-Jo bad.

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