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Thread: I'd probably put an extension of Article 50 and a second referendum at about 70%

  1. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by Burney View Post
    Couple of issues there:

    a/ There is no public appetite for a second referendum - and absolutely none among Tory voters.
    b/ A tory leadership that extends Article 50 and brings in a second referendum will effectively be committing political suicide at the next election - if (and this is not as easy as it sounds) it can actually command a majority for doing so.
    I know, but ultimately I think Tory MPs outside the ERG would sooner get behind a second ref than a No Deal Brexit.

    It's possible that a No Deal Brexit could wipe out the Tories at the next GE, too. Even if an orderly No Deal departure was at a certain point possible, it does seem likely that it hasn't been adequately prepared for, and the economic impact would be substantial.
    .

  2. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by Monty92 View Post
    I know, but ultimately I think Tory MPs outside the ERG would sooner get behind a second ref than a No Deal Brexit.

    It's possible that a No Deal Brexit could wipe out the Tories at the next GE, too. Even if an orderly No Deal departure was at a certain point possible, it does seem likely that it hasn't been adequately prepared for, and the economic impact would be substantial.
    .
    No Deal might damage them in the short term (but, btw, the UK electorate doesn't vote Labour when the economy's in serious trouble - Labour govts are an indulgence set aside for good economic - or at least optimistic - times. Voting Labour during an economic storm would be like a shipwrecked sailor choosing to cling to the anchor rather than the wreckage).

    By contrast, extending Article 50 and a second vote would betray their base destroy them forever. Which would you choose?
    Last edited by Burney; 12-05-2018 at 10:35 AM.

  3. #13
    It's time for Batten to deploy Tommy and the Boys to the Beer Hall.

  4. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by Arsenal Alcoholic Review View Post
    It's time for Batten to deploy Tommy and the Boys to the Beer Hall.
    UKIP with no Farage

  5. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by Monty92 View Post
    UKIP with no Farage
    They were finished as a party once the people (sort of) voted out of the EU. That was proven at the last election. But Batten has played a blinder recently. The ranks are swelling with Dankula, Sargon, Tommy and PJW added. They're on the march.

  6. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by Burney View Post
    Couple of issues there:

    a/ There is no public appetite for a second referendum - and absolutely none among Tory voters.
    b/ A tory leadership that extends Article 50 and brings in a second referendum will effectively be committing political suicide at the next election - if (and this is not as easy as it sounds) it can actually command a majority for doing so.
    No public appetite??? I would suggest the remainers would quite gladly have a second one, so that is nearly 50% of the people that voted last time
    Northern Monkey ... who can't upload a bleeding Avatar

  7. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by Pokster View Post
    No public appetite??? I would suggest the remainers would quite gladly have a second one, so that is nearly 50% of the people that voted last time
    Currently, polling is at 50:40 against with 10% don't knows. That simply isn't enough to justify a second referendum.

    Also, among Tory voters, those numbers stand at 74-18 against. So, the question is: what Tory government in its right mind would choose to pursue a course of action so profoundly contrary to its voters' wishes?

  8. #18
    Quote Originally Posted by Burney View Post
    Currently, polling is at 50:40 against with 10% don't knows. That simply isn't enough to justify a second referendum.

    Also, among Tory voters, those numbers stand at 74-18 against. So, the question is: what Tory government in its right mind would choose to pursue a course of action so profoundly contrary to its voters' wishes?
    I would suggest that all remainers would jump on a second vote.. and all depends how it was worded, I can't see another yes or no vote as that got us into the mess we are now, it would have to be remain or a yes for whatever the proposal May agreed with the EU is
    Northern Monkey ... who can't upload a bleeding Avatar

  9. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by Pokster View Post
    I would suggest that all remainers would jump on a second vote.. and all depends how it was worded, I can't see another yes or no vote as that got us into the mess we are now, it would have to be remain or a yes for whatever the proposal May agreed with the EU is
    Anything other than a Yes/No vote would mean essentially gerrymandering the vote to ensure there is no outcome other than one Remainers like, so I'm not sure that'll fly. As Rees-Mogg put it to Caroline Lucas, that choice would in effect mean having everything on the ballot except what was voted for in June 2016.

  10. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by Burney View Post
    Currently, polling is at 50:40 against with 10% don't knows. That simply isn't enough to justify a second referendum.

    Also, among Tory voters, those numbers stand at 74-18 against. So, the question is: what Tory government in its right mind would choose to pursue a course of action so profoundly contrary to its voters' wishes?
    What's to stop a new law being put forward to avoid No Deal, by the way?

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