I'd probably put an extension of Article 50 and a second referendum at about 70%

[Monty92]

at this point.

So, with this knowledge which way do the ERG vote next week?

[Sir C]

at this point.

So, with this knowledge which way do the ERG vote next week?

Robert Peston's thread on twitter 'explaining' the current situation is as confusing as all fúckery. His reading is that parliament now has the power to vote against a hard Brexit and that ERG's only remaining option is to support May's deal. It is, in effect, semi-Brexit or no Brexit at all.

[Monty92]

Robert Peston's thread on twitter 'explaining' the current situation is as confusing as all fúckery. His reading is that parliament now has the power to vote against a hard Brexit and that ERG's only remaining option is to support May's deal. It is, in effect, semi-Brexit or no Brexit at all.

Do we know the numbers on how many non-ERG Tories would need to vote for the deal for it to pass? I mean, could ERG swing it?

I do think there are certain figures who simply can't vote for it regardless - Mogg, Baker, etc.

[Burney]

Do we know the numbers on how many non-ERG Tories would need to vote for the deal for it to pass? I mean, could ERG swing it?

I do think there are certain figures who simply can't vote for it regardless - Mogg, Baker, etc.

It won't pass.The former chief whip reckons it'll lose by about 80 votes as things stand. I don't see that turning around - particularly as the legal advice is likely to make May's deal virtually impossible to vote for.

[Monty92]

It won't pass.The former chief whip reckons it'll lose by about 80 votes as things stand. I don't see that turning around - particularly as the legal advice is likely to make May's deal virtually impossible to vote for.

What happens next, iyo?

[Burney]

What happens next, iyo?

Chaos, basically. All this talk of 'voting against hard Brexit' is largely meaningless. How exactly does Parliament go about doing that, given that it has passed an Act saying we will leave the EU on 29 March next year?

[Burney]

Robert Peston's thread on twitter 'explaining' the current situation is as confusing as all fúckery. His reading is that parliament now has the power to vote against a hard Brexit and that ERG's only remaining option is to support May's deal. It is, in effect, semi-Brexit or no Brexit at all.

That all sounds superficially convincing but entirely ignores the question of how exactly Parliament can go about voting against Hard Brexit. Bear in mind that Parliament passed an Act which sets out our leaving the EU on 29/03/19. Unless that Act is repealed by another Act it is good law. Yesterday’s events do not provide a mechanism for repeal.

[Arsenal Alcoholic Review]

It's time for Batten to deploy Tommy and the Boys to the Beer Hall.

[Monty92]

It's time for Batten to deploy Tommy and the Boys to the Beer Hall.

UKIP with no Farage

[Arsenal Alcoholic Review]

UKIP with no Farage

They were finished as a party once the people (sort of) voted out of the EU. That was proven at the last election. But Batten has played a blinder recently. The ranks are swelling with Dankula, Sargon, Tommy and PJW added. They're on the march.