So May’s deal will pass (Ken Clarke coming out in favour makes that clear)

[Monty92]

The Labour front bench will want it to pass, despite voting against it. In fact their decision to vote against it is predicated entirely on the assumption that the vote will pass.

Then Labour will fight the next GE as the party that opposed the terrible deal voted through by the Tories.

Cosmic.

[Herbert Augustus Chapman]

Then Labour will fight the next GE as the party that opposed the terrible deal voted through by the Tories.

And they'll win it hands down.

With Labour being rabid anti-Semites* too, you'll have to relocate to Israel.


*This we know because you and Berni told us.

[WES]

The Labour front bench will want it to pass, despite voting against it. In fact their decision to vote against it is predicated entirely on the assumption that the vote will pass.

Then Labour will fight the next GE as the party that opposed the terrible deal voted through by the Tories.

Cosmic.

Sorry? How are you proposing that it passes? Because enough Labour MPs will vote for it to get it through but not so many that they can't claim that they didn't oppose it?

And after that Labour will then tell the public that they opposed the deal even though it passed only because many of them voted for it?

Wow, they really are stupid.

[Monty92]

Sorry? How are you proposing that it passes? Because enough Labour MPs will vote for it to get it through but not so many that they can't claim that they didn't oppose it?

And after that Labour will then tell the public that they opposed the deal even though it passed only because many of them voted for it?

Wow, they really are stupid.

Ok, I haven't actually done the numbers. But if May can get the DUP back onside, I think it could pass with only a small handful of Labour rebels, no?

[WES]

Ok, I haven't actually done the numbers. But if May can get the DUP back onside, I think it could pass with only a small handful of Labour rebels, no?

Firstly, the DUP are not back onside. Secondly, that means that the number you are looking for is 10 (DUP) plus X where is the number of Tories who do not vote for the deal. As there have been 37 letters of no confidence that means at least 47 Labour MPs of 257 would need to vote for it. There are almost certainly more than 37 Tories who will not vote for it so that means approximately 25% of Labour needs to support it for it to pass.

[Monty92]

Firstly, the DUP are not back onside. Secondly, that means that the number you are looking for is 10 (DUP) plus X where is the number of Tories who do not vote for the deal. As there have been 37 letters of no confidence that means at least 47 Labour MPs of 257 would need to vote for it. There are almost certainly more than 37 Tories who will not vote for it so that means approximately 25% of Labour needs to support it for it to pass.

I don't agree that there are almost certainly 37+ Tories.

I suspect when it comes to the crunch, most will fall into line, given the consequences of the deal failing. The only ones that won't are tho high profile hard Brexiteers seeking to save face (in the knowledge the vote will still pass regardless) and, in some cases, set themselves up for a credible leadership bid.

[WES]

I don't agree that there are almost certainly 37+ Tories.

I suspect when it comes to the crunch, most will fall into line, given the consequences of the deal failing. The only ones that won't are tho high profile hard Brexiteers seeking to save face (in the knowledge the vote will still pass regardless) and, in some cases, set themselves up for a credible leadership bid.

You think that MPs who submitted letters of no confidence on May will then vote for her deal? That seems unlikely to me. Incredibly unlikely. Then there are the Tory MPs who were elected in Leave constituencies, no idea how many of these there are but it's certainly > 0. Then there are the Tory Brexiters who have yet to submit a letter of no confidence. It only takes about 10-15 of those two groups combined to get to 25%. But the 25% number itself is arbitrary and just a sound bite.

Assuming the DUP do not fold, it will only take 37 Labour MPs to vote for the deal to have it pass. Labour claiming to have voted against the deal under those circumstances is absurd. And as importantly, you're assuming the voting public will hold the Tories accountable for this terrible deal when in fact the impact of Brexit on the large majority of the country might be minimal precisely because of this deal.

I'm willing to bet that the overwhelming majority of the public don't give a toss about the philosophical aspect of Brexit and democracy, people like Burney are in the small minority, what they really care about are jobs and immigration. If this deal allows the Tories to show that the economic impact of Brexit is minimal and that we have regained control of our borders, money and laws the voting public will see this as a positive for the Tories.

[Monty92]

You think that MPs who submitted letters of no confidence on May will then vote for her deal? That seems unlikely to me. Incredibly unlikely. Then there are the Tory MPs who were elected in Leave constituencies, no idea how many of these there are but it's certainly > 0. Then there are the Tory Brexiters who have yet to submit a letter of no confidence. It only takes about 10-15 of those two groups combined to get to 25%. But the 25% number itself is arbitrary and just a sound bite.

Assuming the DUP do not fold, it will only take 37 Labour MPs to vote for the deal to have it pass. Labour claiming to have voted against the deal under those circumstances is absurd. And as importantly, you're assuming the voting public will hold the Tories accountable for this terrible deal when in fact the impact of Brexit on the large majority of the country might be minimal precisely because of this deal.

I'm willing to bet that the overwhelming majority of the public don't give a toss about the philosophical aspect of Brexit and democracy, people like Burney are in the small minority, what they really care about are jobs and immigration. If this deal allows the Tories to show that the economic impact of Brexit is minimal and that we have regained control of our borders, money and laws the voting public will see this as a positive for the Tories.

Some reasonable points there, but you spend the first two paragraphs arguing why the deal cannot possibly pass, and your final paragraph explaining why it could end up being considered a success if it does.

If you're arithmetic is right, how does it possibly pass, iyo?

[WES]

Some reasonable points there, but you spend the first two paragraphs arguing why the deal cannot possibly pass, and your final paragraph explaining why it could end up being considered a success if it does.

If you're arithmetic is right, how does it possibly pass, iyo?

It will only pass if Labour rebel at some level against their leadership i.e. Corbyn, Abbott and that utter cretin McDonnell (the worst of that triumvirate imo) and decide that their constituencies are more concerned about the impact of Brexit than the way it is achieved and decide to support it. And given the level of discord in Labour because of Corbyn I wouldn't write that possibility off. But if that were to happen there is no way I can see that Labour could then pitch themselves as having voted against the deal in the next election and if Brexit proceeds as I describe above, it might be political suicide to do so.

What happens if it gets rejected? Haven't a clue, no one does.

[eastgermanautos]

The Labour front bench will want it to pass, despite voting against it. In fact their decision to vote against it is predicated entirely on the assumption that the vote will pass.

Then Labour will fight the next GE as the party that opposed the terrible deal voted through by the Tories.

Cosmic.

It was obvious to the outsider that you weren't going to entrust the fate of the nation to someone named Rees-Mogg. The crazies have not yet completely taken over the asylum, at least not yet.