Tracing back through the conversation, its based on a balance of experience and his stubbornness. What he does has not worked for years and he isn't one for changing his mind.
Obviously 'faith' (and let us not start on that again) is never going to be a scientific calculation but equally I have not plucked it out of the air.
His sides will continue to have the same weaknesses and these will always sufficiently undermine the strengths to ensure that we never get beyond our comfortable 3rd/4th place which now seems to be the distant horizon of ambition rather than the comfort zone.