Election predictions??

[Darren's Dodgy Denim]

I think the Tories will increase their majority, despite the poor campaign they've run. Simply because the youngsters won't turn up to vote, while the old bones within an inch of the grave, will crawl to the polling station out of old habit.

[Pokster]

Her arse, your arse, what is it with you and arses?

Your mum's arse, btw.

I have had arses on my mind since you mentioned I can lick yours if Arsenal win the league.... so really it is your fault

[Sir C]

I think the Tories will increase their majority, despite the poor campaign they've run. Simply because the youngsters won't turn up to vote, while the old bones within an inch of the grave, will crawl to the polling station out of old habit.

I did mine by post d, didn't need to crawl or get the ol' zimmer frame out

[Burney]

It is due to the profilling that Polling co's now do on polls.. they were so far out in 2015 that they now model the polls.... it depends on what the model they have written says to what the outcome would be. E.G they think that more people who say they will vote Tory will actually go to the polling station and vote compared to the Labour voters.. the same with undecided, they model that of x% that say they don't know, more will end up voting Tory than Labour, so they stick that in the Computer and come up with their numbers

The problem is that that sort of modelling isn't an attempt to predict what will actually happen. It's an attempt to predict what will happen if a variety of hypotheticals come into play. Now that's fine in itself, but when it is reported as an accurate reflection of voter intention, it becomes problematic, since it starts to influence the nature of the democratic process itself.

[Pokster]

The problem is that that sort of modelling isn't an attempt to predict what will actually happen. It's an attempt to predict what will happen if a variety of hypotheticals come into play. Now that's fine in itself, but when it is reported as an accurate reflection of voter intention, it becomes problematic, since it starts to influence the nature of the democratic process itself.

True up to a point, but all they are trying to do is to be more accurate than last time, if they aren't then people eventually will just ignire the polls and the co's that make them won't get paid and they will be all sad..... you don't want sad people do you b

[Burney]

Another way of looking at it is not that they've run a shoddy campaign, but that for the first time in memory they've known they can push through policies that are disliked by their core voter base and still get away with it come polling day. This is most evident in their social care policy, which seems to be to be a policy that someone of a left-leaning persuasion would ordinarily fully support, if it were not the Tories who were proposing it.

Well they thought they could, but the backlash against their manifesto scared the sh1t out of them and taught them a lesson.

[Yesterday Once More]

My prediction (change from 2015 result in brackets)

Conservative 360 (+29 seats)
Labour 217 (-15)
SNP 38 (-18)
Lib Dem 14 (+6)
Others (Paddies, Taffies, Green, Speaker) 21 (-2)

[Mo Britain less Europe]

Tory win by 50/75 seats.

Not impressed by May. Blown her chances of being a long-term PM.

[Rich]

Tory win by 50/75 seats.

Not impressed by May. Blown her chances of being a long-term PM.

Boristime.

[The Insider]

TM clearly isn't one for the campaign trail. But ask yourself one question. Would you rathed have a PM who is capable over a five year term or one who can dazzle in a seven week campaign.