Quote Originally Posted by Mo Britain less Europe View Post
The population divides roughly 50/50 between wanting two different unions. That is still a recipe for trouble. The republicans stopped the bombings because they gained on the political arena and firmly believe - Gerry Adams reminded us yesterday - that history is on their side. But if that doesn't happen they will be pissed off.

If it does happen then you can understand that the other half will feel Carsonesque about joining a poorer more limited country which still hangs on to vestiges of old-style Papism.

So don't count your chickens that Ulster will be peaceful forever and aye.
It's a vastly different political landscape now, though.

Ireland is a much less priest-ridden and more modern society now than it was even 20 years ago - the sex abuse scandals saw to that. Equally, you now have the generation that drove the troubles dying out and a younger generation who have grown up without violence and have no desire for it. Plus, of course, the manifest injustices that led to the original outbreak of the troubles no longer exist, so the catalyst for violence isn't really there. Also, the sort of blood and soil nationalist and unionist outlooks that bred Adams and Paisley don't really exist in the same way they used to.

Only a fool or someone with no grasp of history would ever think NI is permanently at peace. However, I am more sanguine about the prospect of it now than I've ever been and certainly can't see the means or motive existing for a serious return to large-scale violence in the short to medium term.