Someone pointed me at this article on the Brexit business. It's rather good.

[Sir C]

The trouble is that the UK voted to leave but no one really knew/knows what exactly that meant/means. They are trying to work out what to do now.

I don't believe it will happen. It suits the establishment in the UK as little as that of the EU.

The strategy is, I believe, fudge, fudge, fudge, until something comes along.

[World's End Stella]

Sort of like that time The Arsenal were Calendar Year Champions?

Exactly, yes. Because there is no competition which considers only the calendar year, to derive a conclusion about who is the best team based on that sample space would be dubious, to say the least.

Equally, it is dubious to try and derive a conclusion about the state of mind of the 'country' based on the Brexit vote given that the vote was significantly influenced by one rather important portion of the country not turning out to vote in representative numbers.

That's what you meant, right?

[World's End Stella]

I don't believe it will happen. It suits the establishment in the UK as little as that of the EU.

The strategy is, I believe, fudge, fudge, fudge, until something comes along.

Fudge, fudge, fudge and then eventually come back with something that looks an awful lot like no Brexit would be my guess.

You can't expect politicians to take decisive action, Charles. If they did, they wouldn't be politicians.

[Ash]

Sort of like that time The Arsenal were Calendar Year Champions?

[Ash]

Exactly, yes. Because there is no competition which considers only the calendar year, to derive a conclusion about who is the best team based on that sample space would be dubious, to say the least.

Equally, it is dubious to try and derive a conclusion about the state of mind of the 'country' based on the Brexit vote given that the vote was significantly influenced by one rather important portion of the country not turning out to vote in representative numbers.

That's what you meant, right?

Sophistry. You started by hypotheticalising the over 55s out of the result, and continue by pretending that if a bunch of people who didn't bother to vote had all voted in a certain way, the result might have been reversed.

Changing the rules to a set of rules that doesn't exist is meaningless. Hence reg's reference to the Calendar Year Champions.

[Burney]

I'm struggling to reconcile that statement with the fact that had the vote been restricted to people under 55 and/or people in the 18-30 bracket turned out in the same numbers as the over 55s the vote would have been a strong Remain.

The over 55s is a vast number of people - around 19 million voters. Saying Remain would have won if 19 million of the voting age population had been prevented from voting is patently absurd.
Assuming a different result if all the 18-30s had voted is equally absurd, since it falsely assumes that the young people who didn't vote would have voted the same way as those who didn't. Given that most of those young people who didn't vote were in the socio-economic groups and geographical areas that voted to Leave, I'd say that was highly doubtful.
Besides, the point is that many of those who voted remain on June 23rd found out on June 24th that the rest of the country had not fallen into line with their rather smug orthodoxy as they thought they had. And when they found this out, they didn't much like it.

[World's End Stella]

The over 55s is a vast number of people - around 19 million voters. Saying Remain would have won if 19 million of the voting age population had been prevented from voting is patently absurd.
Assuming a different result if all the 18-30s had voted is equally absurd, since it falsely assumes that the young people who didn't vote would have voted the same way as those who didn't. Given that most of those young people who didn't vote were in the socio-economic groups and geographical areas that voted to Leave, I'd say that was highly doubtful.
Besides, the point is that many of those who voted remain on June 23rd found out on June 24th that the rest of the country had not fallen into line with their rather smug orthodoxy as they thought they had. And when they found this out, they didn't much like it.

I agree I'm indulging in the hypothetical but so are you when you draw conclusions about people being 'out of touch with the country'. I think there is sufficient evidence to indicate that the Leave vote was a result of a perfect storm which is unlikely to occur again making the result a one off which should not be used to derive conclusions concerning the country's state of mind.

A hopeless Labour leader, young people showing unexpected apathy, the elderly turning out in remarkable numbers, an appalling Remain campaign from the Tories - these all lead to the Leave vote, not a particular change in the state of mind of the nation.

[Burney]

I agree I'm indulging in the hypothetical but so are you when you draw conclusions about people being 'out of touch with the country'. I think there is sufficient evidence to indicate that the Leave vote was a result of a perfect storm which is unlikely to occur again making the result a one off which should not be used to derive conclusions concerning the country's state of mind.

A hopeless Labour leader, young people showing unexpected apathy, the elderly turning out in remarkable numbers, an appalling Remain campaign from the Tories - these all lead to the Leave vote, not a particular change in the state of mind of the nation.

You speak as if the Leave vote were an aberration. In fact it was in line with decades of polling showing a strong anti-EU sentiment in this country. The only thing that was remarkable was that that sentiment held up in the face of relentless fearmongering propaganda from the Government, business figures, international bodies, a cross-party consensus, the President of the United States, the Bank of England, the OECD, Old Uncle Tom Cobley and all.
The very fact that you think the Leave vote was 'a perfect storm' rather than the logical culmination of the strong anti-EU sentiments people in this country have felt for a long time only goes to show how little you grasped how people in the UK really felt.
Which, of course, is rather my point.

[World's End Stella]

You speak as if the Leave vote were an aberration. In fact it was in line with decades of polling showing a strong anti-EU sentiment in this country. The only thing that was remarkable was that that sentiment held up in the face of relentless fearmongering propaganda from the Government, business figures, international bodies, a cross-party consensus, the President of the United States, the Bank of England, the OECD, Old Uncle Tom Cobley and all.
The very fact that you think the Leave vote was 'a perfect storm' rather than the logical culmination of the strong anti-EU sentiments people in this country have felt for a long time only goes to show how little you grasped how people in the UK really felt.
Which, of course, is rather my point.

Yes, we fundamentally disagree on that point. And I think it is entirely relevant and sensible to consider the fact that people under 55 voted to Remain. I think that fact is inconsistent with your viewpoint.

[Ash]

I agree I'm indulging in the hypothetical but so are you when you draw conclusions about people being 'out of touch with the country'. I think there is sufficient evidence to indicate that the Leave vote was a result of a perfect storm which is unlikely to occur again making the result a one off which should not be used to derive conclusions concerning the country's state of mind.

A hopeless Labour leader, young people showing unexpected apathy, the elderly turning out in remarkable numbers, an appalling Remain campaign from the Tories - these all lead to the Leave vote, not a particular change in the state of mind of the nation.

17.5 million people defied the instruction of the national, financial, capitalist, continental and even global elite. The three main parties, 80-odd percent of MPs, the CBI, IMF, ECB, European Commision, POTUS, Goldman Sachs et al, academia, celebdom, and most of the media pounded home the message. The result - more people voted to leave the EU than have ever voted for anything in British political history. And the elite weren't expecting it. Oh, and polls are saying that there is little 'buyers remorse', and despite the social ostracism, we'd do it again tomorrow, not because we're stupid, but because we don't believe in the EU and just want to be a normal democratic and self-governing country like Norway, Canada, Japan, new Zealand or India.