Brexit is going to ultimately get cancelled if May loses tonight, isn’t it?

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Originally Posted by Burney

Oh, right. Well good luck with that. :thumbup:

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Thanks ;-) .

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Originally Posted by Yesterday Once More

The votes to take no deal off the table and extend Article 50 are likely to be meaningless. I listened to the EU Parliament debate this morning. There is little mood to consider an extension. Socialist/liberal types argue we don't know what we want, so there's no point. Conservative/Eurosceptics argue that the EU doesn't have the right to lock a sovereign state in the EU when we have voted to leave. None of them want a whole load more Uncle Nigels elected if we have to take part in EU elections in May.

No deal is now the likeliest outcome, though not certain.

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Not sure I understand why the EU would extend? Unless I’m missing something by not extending we are forced into no deal - which we have made it clear we won’t do - or May’s deal, which the EU have agreed.

So they refuse to extend and we are forced into May’s deal, no?

Very good. I do sense a sort of warming up to your president happening here, e. You know, as Mueller & Co. prepares to call it a day and go home?

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Originally Posted by eastgermanautos

Sure. To an extent. And I did not object to the fact of that "side" of America getting a shot. It's very clear: there are the elite economic zones (NYC, LA, DC, SF), and there are the flyover states. The latter routinely get fvcked with. And we can see that the mere placeholder of a populist president surfaces a lot of gunge, such as, for example, this cheating scandal for elite colleges going on right now. This is all to the good. Lets off steam. And why should people not be homers, especially when we have nice areas, mountains, eagles. It's not Bangladesh, after all.

No question. But my goal is to bring about the anarcho-syndicalist overthrow of the the capitalist narco-state, and this means that I will always blast forth any conspiracy to help weaken the latter. Trump's illegitimacy, and your current travails, being two examples.

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Originally Posted by WES

Not sure I understand why the EU would extend? Unless I’m missing something by not extending we are forced into no deal - which we have made it clear we won’t do - or May’s deal, which the EU have agreed.

So they refuse to extend and we are forced into May’s deal, no?

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Not if she can't get it through Parliament (which she patently can't), no.

A rejection of an extension means No Deal.

The only alternative is legislating to revoke of A50, which would be democratically indefensible and would represent electoral suicide for both major parties.

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Originally Posted by Burney

Not if she can't get it through Parliament (which she patently can't), no.

A rejection of an extension means No Deal.

The only alternative is legislating to revoke of A50, which would be democratically indefensible and would represent electoral suicide for both major parties.

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so you think parliament if faced with a choice between no deal and May’s deal would choose no deal? Not convinced

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Originally Posted by Burney

Not if she can't get it through Parliament (which she patently can't), no.

A rejection of an extension means No Deal.

The only alternative is legislating to revoke of A50, which would be democratically indefensible and would represent electoral suicide for both major parties.

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So .............. what exactly are you saying?

You leave with no deal?

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Originally Posted by redgunamo

Very good. I do sense a sort of warming up to your president happening here, e. You know, as Mueller & Co. prepares to call it a day and go home?

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Not so much a warming up as an advancing of the plot. Like I say violent overthrow of the state ;-)

Always follow the money, SW #PanamaPapers #ParadisePapers :sherlock:

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Originally Posted by SWv2

So .............. what exactly are you saying?

You leave with no deal?

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Originally Posted by WES

so you think parliament if faced with a choice between no deal and May’s deal would choose no deal? Not convinced

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I've explained the mechanics whereby it potentially happens. Labour would whip against it and there's no reason to think any other opposition parties wouldn't do the same, since they'll want to distance themselves as far as possible from 'Tory Brexit' as they can. The DUP won't budge if the backstop doesn't and the ERG - if faced with a choice between the deal they hate and No Deal - will overwhelmingly vote No Deal (indeed, many of them would love it).

Now sure there are lots of potential complications to that (abstentions, rebellions on the Labour benches, Tory MPs losing their bottle, etc), but it's perfectly plausible - even likely at this stage - that May's deal is rejected a third time and we get No Deal. :shrug:

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Originally Posted by SWv2

So .............. what exactly are you saying?

You leave with no deal?

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The only upside to a delay from the EU’s perspective is that it ends up in a referendum and a Remain vote. The downside of no extension is that we may vote for no deal.

The EU has to decide which of those two things is more likely and proceed accordingly I think.

I’m now guessing they don’t extend we have one final vote and May’s deal goes through as parliament won’t vote for no deal.