at this point.
So, with this knowledge which way do the ERG vote next week?
at this point.
So, with this knowledge which way do the ERG vote next week?
Robert Peston's thread on twitter 'explaining' the current situation is as confusing as all fúckery. His reading is that parliament now has the power to vote against a hard Brexit and that ERG's only remaining option is to support May's deal. It is, in effect, semi-Brexit or no Brexit at all.Quote:
Originally Posted by Monty92
Do we know the numbers on how many non-ERG Tories would need to vote for the deal for it to pass? I mean, could ERG swing it?Quote:
Originally Posted by Sir C
I do think there are certain figures who simply can't vote for it regardless - Mogg, Baker, etc.
It won't pass.The former chief whip reckons it'll lose by about 80 votes as things stand. I don't see that turning around - particularly as the legal advice is likely to make May's deal virtually impossible to vote for.Quote:
Originally Posted by Monty92
What happens next, iyo?Quote:
Originally Posted by Burney
That all sounds superficially convincing but entirely ignores the question of how exactly Parliament can go about voting against Hard Brexit. Bear in mind that Parliament passed an Act which sets out our leaving the EU on 29/03/19. Unless that Act is repealed by another Act it is good law. Yesterday’s events do not provide a mechanism for repeal.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sir C
Chaos, basically. All this talk of 'voting against hard Brexit' is largely meaningless. How exactly does Parliament go about doing that, given that it has passed an Act saying we will leave the EU on 29 March next year?Quote:
Originally Posted by Monty92
It doesn't, it all just cranks up the pressure on more Cabinet members to resign and in doing so force May to resign to be replaced by someone who will extend Article 50, paving the way for a second referendum.Quote:
Originally Posted by Burney
Couple of issues there:Quote:
Originally Posted by Monty92
a/ There is no public appetite for a second referendum - and absolutely none among Tory voters.
b/ A tory leadership that extends Article 50 and brings in a second referendum will effectively be committing political suicide at the next election - if (and this is not as easy as it sounds) it can actually command a majority for doing so.
I suspect that there will be a referendum between May's Brexit or no Brexit at all. Brexit will have to be pushed back to allow this.Quote:
Originally Posted by Burney
There is absolutely no way that the Parliamentary Commission is going to give Joe Public the option of voting for hard Brexit since no party wants that.
I think suspect we might remain in after all, especially if they allow 16 and 17 year-olds to vote (as they well should, considering it impacts their future prosperity more than others). Also, we now know the best deal the EU will give us. A trade deal with Trump looks unfavourable. Many of the old people that voted leave 2 years ago are now dead. And many youngsters that were too young to vote (and highly likely to vote Remain) are now old enough to take part.