that she was expected to lose?
When is the Monty was confidently calling yesterday? The one which will tells us if he is indeed an astute observer of the political zeitgeist who can sense the complex machinations at the heart of the bodies politic, or just another babbling quarter-wit :-)
The vote was never really supposed to take place. The Soubry amendment was supposed to be passed, meaning the vote would be postponed. However, the Government (which really does combine arrogance and incompetence to a quite spectacular degree) gave way on the Soubry amendment and tried to force its motion through anyway in the belief that the ERG would acquiesce (a naive belief dear old Monty clearly shared). The Government miscalculated appallingly, the ERG abstained and the motion was defeated, leaving May unable to claim she has any Parliamentary majority for her deal.Quote:
Originally Posted by Herbert Augustus Chapman
That last bit is fundamentally untrue. The ERG were quite clear that the reason they abstained was not because they'd changed their mind on the Brady amendment (which they previously supported and which endorses May's deal) but because supporting yesterday's specific motion would have also taken No Deal off the table.Quote:
Originally Posted by Burney
In fact, after the vote Steve Baker of the ERG made a notable slip of the tongue, admitting he would vote for a deal that had "changes" to the backstop, before panicking and correcting himself that he meant "removing" the backstop.
So my original (and derided by you) prediction that the ERG will vote for a deal that still had the backstop (and probably had no meaningful changes to it) still holds firm.
But what you seem quite unable to get through your head, m, is that what you define as 'not significant' may in fact be really quite significant as far as we and Brussels are concerned. All sides know that the desired end-game is an amendment to the language on the backstop that offers the UK an escape route. That would be extremely 'significant'.Quote:
Originally Posted by Monty92
I understand that. And my prediction is that the EU will grant a last-minute, face-saving, but not legally binding change (i.e. not a direct change to the withdrawal agreement) that the ERG will reluctantly support.
Because the choice will be either that or no Brexit (given that, if it came to the crunch, labour will vote through a deal rather than allow no deal)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Burney
Ahh but it gives some on here the right to spout crap and act as if they know something about politic,s when it is plain to everyone else that they know as much on that subject as Rich does on footballQuote:
Originally Posted by Herbert Augustus Chapman
No. Y'see that's one idea you need to abandon. No Brexit simply isn't an option for anyone anymore. Neither major party could electorally survive not leaving the EU and - frankly - the last thing the EU wants is us still in as a deeply resentful, disruptive and destructive force. One way or another, we're leaving.Quote:
Originally Posted by Monty92
Now you could certainly argue that whatever deal is done is not true Brexit or BRINO or whatever, but the fact is that No Brexit (and a second vote) are actually the things that are now definitively off the table.
Ok, so it’s it’s March 28th and there’s one final
chance for parliament to vote through her deal (via a short extension) or face no deal.
How many non-ERG members vote down her deal, in your estimate?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Burney
I've no idea what the political arithmetic would look like at that point (or what Labour might do).Quote:
Originally Posted by Monty92
But her deal would still be Brexit. :shrug: It's not a Brexit I'd particularly favour, but it is Brexit. We would leave the EU.
Like I say, there is no option of 'No Brexit'.
You have every idea. You know fulll well that no more than 3-4 labour MPs would vote down her deal in that scenario.
As for No Brexit, the enduring spectre of No Brexit via a long extension of article 50 (which *is* still very much on the table) would amount to much the same thing in the ERG’s eyes.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Burney