A long extension to Article 50 is a nice threat to wave at the ERG, but everyone knows it's not politically sustainable because a/ The EU cannot have us half-in, half-out indefinitely and b/ At some point a government will have to fight an election (sooner rather than later given that it will be impossible to command a majority in the event of such an outcome), which will be impossible to do successfully in such circumstances.Quote:
Originally Posted by Monty92
Well that will be tested shortly with the cooper boles amendment which labour has said they will whip hard to support.
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Originally Posted by Burney
My view is that at the last minute the EU will offer us something short of no backstop but that will be enough for May to get her deal through as the only other option will be no deal. And I think it will be Labour votes not ERG votes that swing it her way.Quote:
Originally Posted by Monty92
Is that contrary to anything I have posted in the past? :sherlock:
Oh, and when that happens those that have used some pretty strong hyperbole when describing her deal and her performance and herself will look awfully stupid.Quote:
Originally Posted by WES
I'm pretty certain I have posted nothing contrary to that view. I've always said she was making a pretty good fist of an incredibly difficult position.
I think pretty much everyone believes this is what the EU will do. However, it is a high-risk manoeuvre that still allows plenty of scope for failure.Quote:
Originally Posted by WES
If (as seems likely) May needs Labour votes to get her deal, she will be widely seen as having betrayed her party, membership and a large proportion of her voters and her position will be largely untenable. She would almost certainly then have to stand down (the knives will be out as soon as Brexit - in whatever form - is delivered. The tory party will probably never recover from such an outcome (but it's arguable that that was always likely to have been the case given its fundamental splits on this issue - which will by that stage have destroyed every Tory PM since Heath).
Now, you may say she's 'made a good fist' of an impossible situation and from a purely dispassionate view that may be the case. However, politics is not a dispassionate business and the fact is that she may well go down in history as the Prime Minister who broke the Tory party and let Jeremy Corbyn into Downing St. Given which, I would question how well she would be viewed by posterity.
I thought there had been an agreement that she tries to deliver Brexit and then steps down? I would have thought that delivering her deal and then stepping aside for someone electable would put the Tories in a very strong position, no?Quote:
Originally Posted by Burney
Certainly given how badly Labour has performed on the Brexit front and who their leader is I would have thought the Tories would be looking at a majority.
No. She's supposed to have said she won't fight the next election. That's not quite the same thing. And besides, nobody in her party believes a single thing that comes out of her mouth any more.Quote:
Originally Posted by WES
And regardless of who steps up, they have the same problem. A remainer and you have a continuation of the same issue people have with her. A Brexiteer (which is certainly what the membership would vote for) and that person is at odds with their parliamentary party. Add to that the very real anger among many, many Tory voters over their handling of Brexit and the possibility of a Brexit party of protest and I'm just not sure the Tory party is in any position to fight an election right now.
And actually, Corbyn's lot have played Brexit pretty well. They've played both ends against the middle such that they can claim to be both the voice of reason and consensus in delivering a soft Brexit (thus keeping all but their most rabid remain voters onboard) while not being seen to betray the wishes of their Leave-voting heartlands. Everything else they say and believe is a reason not to vote for them, but on Brexit they look likely to escape with a certain amount of credit and (more crucially) none of the blame.
If may’s deal goes through it will be seen by the overwhelming majority of labour mps and members as a bad Brexit, not a soft Brexit. And Corbyn will be seen by them as having facilitated it. Not sure how he can survive that either, although a new leader could emerge who has managed to keep their nose clean with the members on the prospect of a 2nd referendum - the obvious candidate there being Starmer.
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Originally Posted by Burney
Well since your argument for it going through is that most of those MPs will have voted for it, they can hardly complain afterwards, can they? And if for any reason it doesn't go through, they get to blame the tories for no deal.Quote:
Originally Posted by Monty92
And Labour members increasingly don't give a toss about Brexit. They're more interested in smashing capitalism and gassing your lot. To the core leave voters in the heartlands (which is what really counts), Brexit will be seen to have been delivered and Jezza to have got it over the line. They will all then continue to vote Labour and have their kids raped by taxi drivers and kebab shop workers.
The only real anger over it will be in London and they'll all still vote Labour anyway.