I'd probably put an extension of Article 50 and a second referendum at about 70%

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Burney

Couple of issues there:

a/ There is no public appetite for a second referendum - and absolutely none among Tory voters.
b/ A tory leadership that extends Article 50 and brings in a second referendum will effectively be committing political suicide at the next election - if (and this is not as easy as it sounds) it can actually command a majority for doing so.

---

I know, but ultimately I think Tory MPs outside the ERG would sooner get behind a second ref than a No Deal Brexit.

It's possible that a No Deal Brexit could wipe out the Tories at the next GE, too. Even if an orderly No Deal departure was at a certain point possible, it does seem likely that it hasn't been adequately prepared for, and the economic impact would be substantial.
.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Monty92

I know, but ultimately I think Tory MPs outside the ERG would sooner get behind a second ref than a No Deal Brexit.

It's possible that a No Deal Brexit could wipe out the Tories at the next GE, too. Even if an orderly No Deal departure was at a certain point possible, it does seem likely that it hasn't been adequately prepared for, and the economic impact would be substantial.
.

---

No Deal might damage them in the short term (but, btw, the UK electorate doesn't vote Labour when the economy's in serious trouble - Labour govts are an indulgence set aside for good economic - or at least optimistic - times. Voting Labour during an economic storm would be like a shipwrecked sailor choosing to cling to the anchor rather than the wreckage).

By contrast, extending Article 50 and a second vote would betray their base destroy them forever. Which would you choose?

It's time for Batten to deploy Tommy and the Boys to the Beer Hall.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Arsenal Alcoholic Review

It's time for Batten to deploy Tommy and the Boys to the Beer Hall.

---

UKIP with no Farage :hehe:

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Monty92

UKIP with no Farage :hehe:

---

They were finished as a party once the people (sort of) voted out of the EU. That was proven at the last election. But Batten has played a blinder recently. The ranks are swelling with Dankula, Sargon, Tommy and PJW added. They're on the march.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Burney

Couple of issues there:

a/ There is no public appetite for a second referendum - and absolutely none among Tory voters.
b/ A tory leadership that extends Article 50 and brings in a second referendum will effectively be committing political suicide at the next election - if (and this is not as easy as it sounds) it can actually command a majority for doing so.

---

No public appetite??? I would suggest the remainers would quite gladly have a second one, so that is nearly 50% of the people that voted last time

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Pokster

No public appetite??? I would suggest the remainers would quite gladly have a second one, so that is nearly 50% of the people that voted last time

---

Currently, polling is at 50:40 against with 10% don't knows. That simply isn't enough to justify a second referendum.

Also, among Tory voters, those numbers stand at 74-18 against. So, the question is: what Tory government in its right mind would choose to pursue a course of action so profoundly contrary to its voters' wishes?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Burney

Currently, polling is at 50:40 against with 10% don't knows. That simply isn't enough to justify a second referendum.

Also, among Tory voters, those numbers stand at 74-18 against. So, the question is: what Tory government in its right mind would choose to pursue a course of action so profoundly contrary to its voters' wishes?

---

I would suggest that all remainers would jump on a second vote.. and all depends how it was worded, I can't see another yes or no vote as that got us into the mess we are now, it would have to be remain or a yes for whatever the proposal May agreed with the EU is

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Pokster

I would suggest that all remainers would jump on a second vote.. and all depends how it was worded, I can't see another yes or no vote as that got us into the mess we are now, it would have to be remain or a yes for whatever the proposal May agreed with the EU is

---

Anything other than a Yes/No vote would mean essentially gerrymandering the vote to ensure there is no outcome other than one Remainers like, so I'm not sure that'll fly. As Rees-Mogg put it to Caroline Lucas, that choice would in effect mean having everything on the ballot except what was voted for in June 2016.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Burney

Currently, polling is at 50:40 against with 10% don't knows. That simply isn't enough to justify a second referendum.

Also, among Tory voters, those numbers stand at 74-18 against. So, the question is: what Tory government in its right mind would choose to pursue a course of action so profoundly contrary to its voters' wishes?

---

What's to stop a new law being put forward to avoid No Deal, by the way?