Tele reporting the Conservatives lead is down to 1 point, 41 to 40.
This can't be happening. Shirley. :-(
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Tele reporting the Conservatives lead is down to 1 point, 41 to 40.
This can't be happening. Shirley. :-(
Arrogant Tory party getting a bit scared...... when you call an election expecting to walk it, will be a massive shock to the system if they don't get an overall majority at least as big as they had going into the electionQuote:
Originally Posted by World's End Stella
If a significant proportion of the population vote to be governed by Corbyn, Abbott and McDonnell then we deserve everything we'll (undoubtedly) get.Quote:
Originally Posted by World's End Stella
I'm glad I'm almost dead.
I would assume logic will take over... but if the polls are correct :yikes:Quote:
Originally Posted by Sir C
Given that Corbyn has only been campaigning in Labour safe seats and May has been highly visible in places Labour have a small majority, I'm guessing that the parties' own polling is much nearer to the truth.Quote:
Originally Posted by Pokster
Corbyn knows they're going to lose badly and is cementing his position amongst the faithful, while May knows those labour seats are very much up for grabs.
I read this morning that the polls showing it to be very close are assuming a 90% turnout amongst 18-24s. Which ain't going to happen.
Weather forecast isn't great.. so the choice of voting or watching homes under the hammer will be a tricky oneQuote:
Originally Posted by Sir C
I don't know how they get these figures. They were not exactly right about Brexit or trump.Quote:
Originally Posted by World's End Stella
Who are asking? nobody has ever asked me.
Don't want you dodgy foreign blokes being askedQuote:
Originally Posted by Pat Vegas
For some of them, YouGov, for example, you have to register with them first, which means they're only asking the more politically engaged sort of people who would bother to register.Quote:
Originally Posted by Pat Vegas
None of it really explains a 20 point swing in a month, though. It's still weird.
Perhaps there is no swing. It's all an illusion.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sir C
Yes, I'd say that is a possibility.Quote:
Originally Posted by Pat Vegas
That is an absolutely shît poll with little or no credibility and which is dominated by online social media users (i.e. heavily biased towards 18-25 year-olds).Quote:
Originally Posted by World's End Stella
There have been a couple of very dodgy outlier polls. YouGov, which started all this crap, has form for this and is rapidly losing credibility.
On Friday, there are going to be a lot of awkward questions being asked of certain polling companies.
If you seek reassurance, this is what is taking place on the doorsteps.
http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2017/06/05...s-got-to-give/
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pokster
One could argue that it would be a bit of an own goal if they do not at least triple their present majority.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sir C
In one sense, the tories will be delighted, as nothing is better calculated to get the tory vote out than the terrifying perception that a Corbyn-led Labour Party will actually be running the country. A lot of waverers or people who've threatened to abstain or make a protest vote will come back into the fold on that basis alone.
The feeling is that anything less than a 70-80 seat majority will be perceived as failure.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alberto Balsam Rodriguez
How is it you spell the word, Labour. That's so gay.Quote:
Originally Posted by Burney
The last few elections have generally shown that polls leading up to the vote are not to be trusted... exit polls, on the other hand, are almost spost on in the last few electionsQuote:
Originally Posted by Burney
Well of course. Pre-election polls record the views of a self-selecting group who want to talk to pollsters. Exit polls involve actual voters.Quote:
Originally Posted by Pokster
Here ya go clownsQuote:
Originally Posted by Pokster
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...-polls-skewed/
But in the 80's and 90's the exit polls were miles out... the last few elections have changed that.Quote:
Originally Posted by Burney
It has been the worst orchestrated campaign by the party in power in living memoryQuote:
Originally Posted by Pokster
Because we acknowledge the French influence on our language and don't struggle to spell words whose spelling includes French forms. You had Noah Webster and his weird hang-ups to make your spelling simpler for you, thus suggesting he didn't rate his countrymen's intelligence all that highly.Quote:
Originally Posted by eastgermanautos
Another minute silence in the office today.Quote:
Originally Posted by PSRB
I think it should be started and ended with a refs whistle.
Neil Kinnock is the PM!Quote:
Originally Posted by Pokster
Though the polls were wrong about Brexit.
That appears to have been written by a Yanqui, e. The Yanqui knows nothing of elections here in the civilised world.Quote:
Originally Posted by eastgermanautos
Well there hasn't been a campaign - that's the problem. May has been so obsessed with it being seen as her victory that she's basically gagged the rest of the cabinet. Boris - who, whatever you think about him is the most effective cross-party vote-winners in UK politics - is only just being allowed out now.Quote:
Originally Posted by PSRB
To be fair, the polls on Brexit for the most part were well within the margin for error.Quote:
Originally Posted by Pat Vegas
It looks as though the idea was to say and do as little as possible and wait for Corbyn and Abbott to stick their feet in their gobs, but then they managed to publish the worst manifesto evs.Quote:
Originally Posted by PSRB
Very depressing.
The manifesto was and is appalling. It basically stuck two fingers up to traditional tory voters and did nothing to win over any floating voters. It was hubristic in the extreme. For the first time in living memory, a sitting tory party has run an election without basing their campaign on being the best custodians of the economy. The suggestion this time is that May hasn't wanted to do that on the basis that saying the economy is doing well would be to give credit to Cameron and Osbourne.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sir C
Basically, Theresa has not impressed at this election. She's been shown to be more interested in her status than that of the party. That won't be forgotten or forgiven.
I would imagine she has damaged her standing in the party, while probably winning an election quite comfortably. That's some achievement.Quote:
Originally Posted by Burney
This should have been the opportunity to destroy the socialists, to make them electorally irrelevant.Quote:
Originally Posted by Burney
May is simply not up to it.
Oh for a Wee Lord Willie to take over!
To be fair, being a good campaigner doesn't make you a good Prime Minister or vice versa. She's likely to be a one-issue PM and that issue will be Brexit. Once that's done, it'll be all change.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sir C
Besides, one side effect of this vote being less than a massacre may well be that Corbyn remains in charge of the Labour Party. Long term, that may actually be the worst possible thing for them.
These days it's impossible for anyone to accurately predict these votes....it's a recent development...like in the last 3 years.
All I've seen is one upset after another.
Even our last election was an upset because the sizeable losses Labour took which no one predicted.
If someone is predicting the tories are one clear then they're most likely miles clear of Labour
Ahem. I predicted a tory majority in 2015. Jorge kept telling me it was a mathematical impossibility. I said people wouldn't vote for Miliband. I was right.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tony C
Ah dear Jorge. One of many people I've had to mute on Twitter until at least this time next week. Sheer volume of tweets was doing my head in let alone the contentQuote:
Originally Posted by Burney
Lol Burney...I was referring to the usual media outlets and companies who do these predictions before hand.
Yes. I'd have thought the fact that Corbyn appears to have attracted j back to the Labour party is surely reason enough not to vote for them? After all, lest we forget, amid all the Jaguar-driving hipster stuff, j does actually claim to be a revolutionary Marxist.Quote:
Originally Posted by Luis Anaconda