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Even if they get a credible replacement they'll have to reverse the sort of majority that will take at least two elections to overturn. They've really ****ed themselves over.Quote:
Originally Posted by Monty92
But remember, after they've been reduced to 100 seats, Momentum will declare that they lost because they were too centrist, and put in a really left wing leader. :hehe:Quote:
Originally Posted by Monty92
Yes. A real shame, that. He's really made politics so much funnier.Quote:
Originally Posted by Monty92
They're already turning on each other savagely before campaigning's even begun. This could be one of the weirdest election campaigns ever.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sir C
Do you think they'll go hard on the IRA and general terrorist sympathising stuff during the campaign, or will they be cautious about such tactics after the damage it did to Goldsmith when he tried it with Khan?Quote:
Originally Posted by Burney
Is it utterly impossible that he / they may do okay??Quote:
Originally Posted by Burney
Well the anti brexit types are quite shouty. so perhaps they will. As previous 'polls' in recent times have been very wrong.Quote:
Originally Posted by SWv2
Utterly. And that's before the Tories even open the filing cabinet rammed with IRA/Hamas/Commie stories. They might not even bother.Quote:
Originally Posted by SWv2
Well quite, I am curious as to how the vehement anti-Brexit people will go, and there is quite a lot of them.Quote:
Originally Posted by Pat Vegas
Is it impossible that they see the whole thing as a Tory made mess and vote accordingly.
Most polls show a 20% lead. Now while polls haven't been completely accurate of late they're not that inaccurate.Quote:
Originally Posted by SWv2
I wouldn't be surprised.Quote:
Originally Posted by SWv2
However will UKIP voters still vote UKIP? they had 12% of seats last time.
There are a lot of fed up labour supporters too so I don't know where they will vote.
Not as simple as that though. There's people for and against brexit in both camps. IMO tt's far more likely a pro-brexit labour voter would switch to the tories than a anti-brexit tory voter moving to Corbyn's labour or the lib dems.Quote:
Originally Posted by SWv2
Given Corbyn's abysmal performance during the referendum and since (doesn't even mention Brexit in his statement just now ffs) no one anti-Brexit would vote for that jokerQuote:
Originally Posted by Billy Goat Sverige
I don't know that it'll be necessary. Unless he performs unexpectedly well, he'll hang himself without them having to do anything.Quote:
Originally Posted by Monty92
Poor Jorge, so quickly forgotten.Quote:
Originally Posted by Luis Anaconda
Malcolm Rifkind says it will be like Michael Foot only worse
:hehe:
You also have to appreciate that an awful lot of Labour supporters want Corbyn gone at any cost and may see voting tactically (or not at all) as a means to that end.Quote:
Originally Posted by SWv2
As to Brexit, it doesn't split on Party lines. Labour's traditional base is pro-Brexit, while many of the LibDems' traditional heartlands in the southwest are pro-Brexit and won't respond well to an anti-Brexit message and thus will probably stay Tory. The LibDems may pick up seats in urban areas, but that is most likely to be at the expense of Labour rather than the tories. Meanwhile, the tories have the most disciplined and homogenous party and voter base, meaning they should romp home.
There's also 4 million UKIP voters likely to vote Tory this time around.Quote:
Originally Posted by Burney
I cannot pretend to understand politics. I simply see every one of them as being liars and treat them all with equal disdain.Quote:
Originally Posted by Burney
Well few if any of them will vote for a Corbyn-led Labour party - despite many being traditional Labour voters.Quote:
Originally Posted by Billy Goat Sverige
The fact is that, whatever else happens, Labour is almightily fùcked.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Monty92
I bet Corbyn is busy writing his victory speech :hehe:
The funniest thing is if Corbyn and the left try to hang on after a devastating electoral defeat. That could be hilarious.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alberto Balsam Rodriguez
He may well do - the constant carping that it is the destructive Blairists who are causing all their problems show no signs of abating and it's clear who will be to blame when they are hammeredQuote:
Originally Posted by Burney
The problem is that many of those Blairists will have lost their seats and thus leave the left in total control of the Party. At which point, I'd have thought a split would be inevitable.Quote:
Originally Posted by Luis Anaconda
It's why I've never voted.Quote:
Originally Posted by SWv2
Do we know what the Lib Dems plan on doing re Brexit as part of their campaign? Campaign as a Remain party, commit to a new referendum prior or post the negotiations? Something else?
If the Lib Dems manage to find a sensible Remain platform I would not discount them draining the Tories (and Labour) of a large number of votes.
Can you back out (in the event of a new referendum) now that the process has officially begun?Quote:
Originally Posted by World's End Stella
I would have thought so, the EU would jump at the chance, I think.Quote:
Originally Posted by SWv2
I can confidently predict that Labour will mount the most hilarious, catastrophic election campaign since the infamous 'longest suicide note' campaign of 1983. You are going to love it.Quote:
Originally Posted by Burney
So am I. Getting rid of Corbyn three years earlier than expected is a nice bonus from our generous PM. A minor tactical gamble which could backfire. THe last thing she needs over the next two years is effective opposition and that is the last thing she has at the moment.
The Party has faced this repeatedly over the years. The response is always to run back to the centre ground.Quote:
Originally Posted by Burney
Whoever takes over is basically facing the Kinnock years.... structural change that destroys your own leadership but starts the work for the next guy.
Very tough election to predict in terms of behaviour and spread. Obviously the outcome (a Conservative landslide) is easier to predict.Quote:
Originally Posted by Burney
Wait until Corbyn starts campaigning. That 20% lead will be extended in no time.Quote:
Originally Posted by Billy Goat Sverige
Does that not assume that Corbyn and the left will definitely step aside? Could you not end up with them dog-in-the-mangering? They know they'll never get another chance to control the Labour Party (and that, it would appear, is what matters most to them) - I wonder if they'll let it go that easily?Quote:
Originally Posted by Peter
Not easily, but a catastrophic election result does wonders for a party rethink. Corbyn's position will be completely untenable. The first thing to go has to be the ridiculous system for electing the leader. All this has to happen but the election will bring it fwardQuote:
Originally Posted by Burney
But Corbyn's position has been pretty much untenable for over a year now. And he's still leader because there are enough lunatics out there who are Labour members who'll keep him in place. I have a distinct feeling that merely leading Labour into its most catastrophic election defeat since 1935 won't be enough to stop them voting for him. They'll believe that this sort of 'purge' will be a good thing.Quote:
Originally Posted by Peter
Never underestimate just what raving fûcking madmen these people are, p.
They also get bored very easily and very quickly. I am not saying it will happen overnight but an early election will hasten the process. There is pretty much no party organisation on the ground in around 50% of the country and none of those people are coming back until that tosser is gone. This will be the first election in 40 years that my mum hasn't been part of.Quote:
Originally Posted by Burney