Brexit is going to ultimately get cancelled if May loses tonight, isn’t it?

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Originally Posted by Burney

Right now, Labour MPs are going mental because she’s going for the blackmail option.
If you think they’re going to abstain, you’re a mong.
Labour ultimately wants to be able to say ‘Tory Brexit, blah, blah’ afterwards. Abstention doesn’t give them that. They’ll be whipped to vote against.
So it comes down to the DUP and the ERG.
Still think No Deal can’t happen?

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I've never said Labour would abstain en masse, or indeed at all.

In your scenario, the numbers could be pretty tight, but I think the DUP would fall into line as when it comes to the crunch they don't have any hard Brexiteer ideologues in their ranks and would rather May's deal than No Deal. That would then bring over enough ERG members for her deal to pass.

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Originally Posted by Monty92

I've never said Labour would abstain en masse, or indeed at all.

In your scenario, the numbers could be pretty tight, but I think the DUP would fall into line as when it comes to the crunch they don't have any hard Brexiteer ideologues in their ranks and would rather May's deal than No Deal. That would then bring over enough ERG members for her deal to pass.

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Oh, mate. You really don’t get the DUP, do you? No reason you should, tbf.
Anything - ANYTHING - that smells of splitting Northern Ireland from the United Kingdom - which the backstop does - will be rejected out of hand.

Either way, No Deal is a possibility.

Sorry for calling you a mong, btw. Rude of me.

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Originally Posted by Burney

Oh, mate. You really don’t get the DUP, do you? No reason you should, tbf.
Anything - ANYTHING - that smells of splitting Northern Ireland from the United Kingdom - which the backstop does - will be rejected out of hand.

Either way, No Deal is a possibility.

Sorry for calling you a mong, btw. Rude of me.

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The only genuine fears about the backstop are that it would reduce our negotiating leverage. No-one *actually* believes there's a remote chance of us actually ending up trapped in it - it's all just bluster.

If this were not the case, you would be right to think the DUP won't budge. But it is.

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Originally Posted by Monty92

The only genuine fears about the backstop are that it would reduce our negotiating leverage. No-one *actually* believes there's a remote chance of us actually ending up trapped in it - it's all just bluster.

If this were not the case, you would be right to think the DUP won't budge. But it is.

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m, I love you dearly and enjoy our chats. You’re a very bright chap generally, but sometimes I do wonder about the way you get ideas stuck in your head.
The WHOLE POINT of the backstop is to keep us trapped in it unless we accept a permanent customs union (ie de facto EU membership).
Someone today likened it to getting into a car with someone who has a gun in the glovebox. You ask them to get rid of the gun, they say ‘Don’t worry about the gun - I’ll never use it’
‘So why do you need the gun?’
‘Never mind the gun. Let’s just get where we’re going’
‘Where are we going?’
‘Wherever I say’
‘Can I get out, please?’
‘No. I have a gun’

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Originally Posted by Burney

m, I love you dearly and enjoy our chats. You’re a very bright chap generally, but sometimes I do wonder about the way you get ideas stuck in your head.
The WHOLE POINT of the backstop is to keep us trapped in it unless we accept a permanent customs union (ie de facto EU membership).
Someone today likened it to getting into a car with someone who has a gun in the glovebox. You ask them to get rid of the gun, they say ‘Don’t worry about the gun - I’ll never use it’
‘So why do you need the gun?’
‘Never mind the gun. Let’s just get where we’re going’
‘Where are we going?’
‘Wherever I say’
‘Can I get out, please?’
‘No. I have a gun’

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Actually, I think the risk of a permanent custom union doesn't come from the EU, it comes from a Labour government taking over the Future Relationship negotiations. To that extent, I take your point.

But that could happen even if we were granted the legal right to unilaterally exit the backstop. And so if the DUP were truly concerned about a permanent customs union, they would surely oppose Brexit in its totality on the grounds that a mere change of government could precipitate one.

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Originally Posted by Monty92

Actually, I think the risk of a permanent custom union doesn't come from the EU, it comes from a Labour government taking over the Future Relationship negotiations. To that extent, I take your point.

But that could happen even if we were granted the legal right to unilaterally exit the backstop. And so if the DUP were truly concerned about a permanent customs union, they would surely oppose Brexit in its totality on the grounds that a mere change of government could precipitate one.

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NI did oppose Brexit in its totality for exactly this reason. They finally found a modus vivendi after 200-odd years and we fûcked it up by having bigger European fish to fry (pretty much a microcosm of Anglo-Irish history right there, btw :hehe: ).
However, if given a choice between the U.K. and any suggestion of being governed, affiliated with or at the mercy of the Irish Republic, the DUP will always choose the U.K. They will fight anyone - including us - to stay British.
There is only one thing the DUP is concerned about: the terror of being ruled by Fenian scum. Literally nothing else matters.
The sad truth is that this whole thing has come down to weird, Irish shít.
I don’t blame you for not getting it. Not many English people do.

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Originally Posted by Rich

People know now what May’s deal entails and can see that virtually everything they were promised is a lie. There are now 15-17 year olds that can now vote (and young people were shown to vote remain very convincingly). A lot of old people have died since the vote. People have perhaps realised that we obviously are better together and may be hopeful of future EU Reform which seems likely.

I could go on?

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The biggest factor by far when it came to determining how people voted was education. 68% of people with university degrees voted to Remain, 70% of those with no more than O levels voted to Leave. That hasn't changed, Rich, so neither would the vote.

And note Burney's point about how Leave voters are very likely to become entrenched given the way they would feel about their vote having been ignored. How many Leave voters do you think voted Leave assuming we would get a great deal as part of Brexit, or because they didn't actually think we would do it? Those numbers are pretty small, I expect, and more than likely to be offset by a number of Remain voters who have been put off by the attitude of the EU.

The vote would be more or less the same, and the country would be even more divided. It's time for no deal, I've said that for some time. Remain or no deal are the only options that are justifiable in my view, and we voted against the former so it's time to get on with the latter.

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Originally Posted by WES

The biggest factor by far when it came to determining how people voted was education. 68% of people with university degrees voted to Remain, 70% of those with no more than O levels voted to Leave. That hasn't changed, Rich, so neither would the vote.

And note Burney's point about how Leave voters are very likely to become entrenched given the way they would feel about their vote having been ignored. How many Leave voters do you think voted Leave assuming we would get a great deal as part of Brexit, or because they didn't actually think we would do it? Those numbers are pretty small, I expect, and more than likely to be offset by a number of Remain voters who have been put off by the attitude of the EU.

The vote would be more or less the same, and the country would be even more divided. It's time for no deal, I've said that for some time. Remain or no deal are the only options that are justifiable in my view, and we voted against the former so it's time to get on with the latter.

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in the latest edition of Viz there is an ad for a Brexit Shítstorm Globe :hehe:

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Burney

m, I love you dearly and enjoy our chats. You’re a very bright chap generally, but sometimes I do wonder about the way you get ideas stuck in your head.
The WHOLE POINT of the backstop is to keep us trapped in it unless we accept a permanent customs union (ie de facto EU membership).
Someone today likened it to getting into a car with someone who has a gun in the glovebox. You ask them to get rid of the gun, they say ‘Don’t worry about the gun - I’ll never use it’
‘So why do you need the gun?’
‘Never mind the gun. Let’s just get where we’re going’
‘Where are we going?’
‘Wherever I say’
‘Can I get out, please?’
‘No. I have a gun’

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You really think the EU would be content with a situation where we had access to the common market while having control of our borders, not having to pay them any money and with limited requirement to adhere to their laws (I believe this is only in two areas of trade)?

I'm not convinced. They're leaving themselves open to internal implosion if that state exists for too long. I agree with Monty that the backstop would not actually last if it were ever implemented and the only reason MPs are saying otherwise are political.

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Originally Posted by WES

You really think the EU would be content with a situation where we had access to the common market while having control of our borders, not having to pay them any money and with limited requirement to adhere to their laws (I believe this is only in two areas of trade)?

I'm not convinced. They're leaving themselves open to internal implosion if that state exists for too long. I agree with Monty that the backstop would not actually last if it were ever implemented and the only reason MPs are saying otherwise are political.

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My 2p worth...... no deal vote tonight gets defeated, tomorrow parliament votes for an extension, UK Govt go beggiung to the EU for an extension 9how long this could be is muddied by European Elections etc), the can gets kicked down the road over and over again, eventually a 2nd Ref is held with iether remain or leave under these terms xxxx... remain win and we don't leave.

Politics will never be the same again and there is a numbe rof riots in some of the areas that voted for leave.

Spurs fall apart every year for evermore, Berni and Monty carry on making out they were correct and argue every few days over Brexit.

Sir C gets the all clear but decides he doesn't like being able to smell anything so snorts large amounts of coke so his nose looks like Daniella Westbrooks.

Ramsey is a great success in Italy and wins world player of the year award 3 years running.