at this point.
So, with this knowledge which way do the ERG vote next week?
at this point.
So, with this knowledge which way do the ERG vote next week?
Robert Peston's thread on twitter 'explaining' the current situation is as confusing as all fúckery. His reading is that parliament now has the power to vote against a hard Brexit and that ERG's only remaining option is to support May's deal. It is, in effect, semi-Brexit or no Brexit at all.
That all sounds superficially convincing but entirely ignores the question of how exactly Parliament can go about voting against Hard Brexit. Bear in mind that Parliament passed an Act which sets out our leaving the EU on 29/03/19. Unless that Act is repealed by another Act it is good law. Yesterday’s events do not provide a mechanism for repeal.
Couple of issues there:
a/ There is no public appetite for a second referendum - and absolutely none among Tory voters.
b/ A tory leadership that extends Article 50 and brings in a second referendum will effectively be committing political suicide at the next election - if (and this is not as easy as it sounds) it can actually command a majority for doing so.
I suspect that there will be a referendum between May's Brexit or no Brexit at all. Brexit will have to be pushed back to allow this.
There is absolutely no way that the Parliamentary Commission is going to give Joe Public the option of voting for hard Brexit since no party wants that.
I think suspect we might remain in after all, especially if they allow 16 and 17 year-olds to vote (as they well should, considering it impacts their future prosperity more than others). Also, we now know the best deal the EU will give us. A trade deal with Trump looks unfavourable. Many of the old people that voted leave 2 years ago are now dead. And many youngsters that were too young to vote (and highly likely to vote Remain) are now old enough to take part.